Thursday, December 27, 2012

Grounds for Contraction?

The Wizards are in the midst of an 8 game losing streak. The organization started the season with a 12 game losing streak and has somehow compiled two losing streaks equaling 20 losses in just their first 24 games. What's more concerning is that the 7-win Charlotte Bobcats currently hold/ are floundering in the longest losing streak at 16 games. Injuries, poor drafting and marquee free agents reluctance to sign with perennial under-achievers contribute every season to disparity in the NBA.

But what teams, like the Wizards and Bobcats, really illustrate is that there are not 150 (30 teams x 5 starters) NBA-quality basketball players. (Or more likely there probably are around 150 and maybe slightly more but many players that would thrive on the Wizards or Bobcats prefer a bench role on more talented and promising teams.) On their current rosters, the Wizards have 4 former NBDL players and the Bobcats have 3 that contribute significant minutes. While other teams rely on DL alumni there seems to be an indirect correlation between NBDL-alumni minutes played and winning percentage.

No matter what the number of teams there will always be cellar-dwellers however the Bobcats and Wizards present evidence that there is some combination of an inadequate supply of healthy, NBA-quality basketball players and/ or demand of such players to join such struggling organizations.


Thursday, December 20, 2012

NFL Playoff Seeding Projections

After Monday night's loss the Jets are no longer eligible for the playoffs, which is of note only because for the first time in history an NFL team replaced its starting QB with its third stringer rather than its second--in this case Tim Tebow, whom next year will likely enhance the sanctity of the Arena Football League at the cost of precipitously reducing league average completion percentage. Other prognostications:

AFC
1. Houston Texans: Nope. Don't buy it. See December 10, 2012 and November 18, 2012. If you have to come back at home to beat the Jaguars you deserve to lose/ lack legitimacy. If the Texans play the Ravens and the Ravens defense is moderately healthy they'll lose at home in the divisional game.

2. Denver Broncos: Broncos or the Patriots will most likely represent the AFC in the Superbowl. Assuming this seeding plays out the divisional series between the Patriots and Broncos will represent the AFC Championship. If Manning can turn the ball over 1 or fewer times then the Broncos should win and then beat the Texans in Houston by about 6.

3. New England Patriots: Probably the best team in the NFL as long as Peyton Manning isn't on the other sideline. Sure they recently lost to the 49ers but Belichick probably orchestrated the loss because he recognized the danger of going into the playoffs on a potentially 10 win playoff streak. Superbowl winners aren't long distance runners; they're sprinters that catch their stride at the right time.

4. Baltimore Raves: Should be a contender but they drafted a QB out of the University of Delaware, who no matter how many impressive 4-game streaks he gives you is constrained by the same intrinsic qualities that led to Delaware being the best college that recruited him after he transferred from the University of Pittsburgh.

5 (WC). Indianapolis Colts: Luck's foray into the playoffs. There will be much talk of it being a precursor of great post-season things to come. If the Ravens' defense remains depleted the Colts may pull out a win, if, however, they are healthy Luck will probably throw for 4 pics and a lot of yards and maybe a score late thus mitigating a blow-out.

6 (WC). Cincinnati Bengals: Any year now the Bengals will return to form. Dalton is closing the season out strong (11 TDs and 3 pics in last 6 games) but if the Bengals have to go into Foxboro then the likelihood for success approaches that of the Dave Shula days.

NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons: See note on Texans but replace dates with November 25 and December 9. They'll most likely make it to the conference championship simply because they'll face either a rookie QB or Jay Cutler on the road, which isn't saying much of a difference.

2. Green Bay Packers: If only the Playoffs consisted of your divisional opponents. That's not the case and what are left are four teams currently scheduled to make the playoffs that contributed to the Packers' four losses.

3. San Francisco 49ers: You cannot tie and lose/ almost tie again the St. Louis Rams and expect good things to happen when the NFL filters out its waste and all that remains are 10 or so competitive to good teams. Colin Kapernick hasn't had a bad game yet and one is due. Presumably it will occur in the playoffs and end the 49ers season.

4. Washington Redskins: It would only be fitting that RG3 lead the Skins to their second playoff win since the  terrorist attacks on 9-11. As long as the Skins avoid a divisional opponent and the 49ers in the playoffs they will represent the NFC in the Superbowl.

5 (WC). Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler cannot, under any circumstance, give his team 4 good games, which is necessary to win a Superbowl out of the Wildcard. Three is possible, two a near certainty but his addiction to gun-slinging 25 yards down the field into triple coverage prohibits the possibility of any more consecutive wins.

6 (WC). NY Giants: Based on prior seasons, the Giants would be situated perfectly for a Superbowl win at the final Wild Card spot but their recent inconsistency is concerning. If the Giants thrash the Ravens there will be grounds for optimism. However Eli has about reached his average interception total for the season but is around 10 off his TD total.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

The $40M Third Baseperson

Perpetually hating the Yankees is allowed and never considered needlessly resentful because in the one major sports' league without a salary cap, the Yanks have come to epitomize the absolute depravity and worst of free agency. They're basically the Sodom and Gomorrah of free agency. If those "pro-family" organizations that for all the troubles and needs this world faces have somehow decided to focus all of their attention on preventing two people of the same sex from ever being able to share a civil union dedicated a fraction of their time to eliminating the ills of profligate free agency the Yankees would represent the tree in the hyperbole of "well if we let two men marry, who's to say some man won't wanna marry his dog or a tree".

(Surprisingly simple solution to this issue--write legislation so only "two human beings" can marry. Literally that problem is now void. Aside #2: Ironically it seems the "pro-family" crowd is rather anti-anything government so then what does it matter that some viciously flagrant violation of the Constitution, i.e., a local municipality, provides a civil service? Isn't any form or iteration government--that, of course doesn't directly benefit pro-familiers--in itself void?) 

So it comes as great joy to many sports fans that the Yankees are scheduled this year to pay $28M to AROD, who not only only is a mediocre third baseperson when he does play but now will collect Eritrea's GDP while sitting on the bench and recovering from a hip injury. In his place they've signed Kevin Youkilis, who makes it all the more sweeter as he starred for years with the Yankees' arch-rivals the Boston Red Sox, for $12M, which means the organization will be paying at least $40M for a 33 year old third baseperson (Youkilis) that batted a career low .235 last year. Should Youkilis get injured the team will probably have to fork out more money for a premier name, like Placido Polanco or Scott Rolen (who if it was the year the Yankees originally signed AROD would be a great alternative). Basically, the Yankees are spending in one year on a declining third baseperson an amount that totals more than two entire MLB rosters in 2010 and one roster in 2011, which is entertaining to all non-Yankee fans as well as that large contingent of Yankees' fans that only begins cheering for them once they make the ALCS. 

Thursday, December 6, 2012

"Tonight was an away game, and we won. We won on the road at home. How crazy is that?" -- MW

The Wizards beat the Heat in a game LeBron went fora triple-double, Bosh for a double-double, Allen and Miller combined for 6 threes, and LeBron, Bosh and DWade all scored over 20 points. A Sportscenter intern needs to crunch some numbers and figure out the last time those three went for twenty, Bron Bron dropped a triple-double and they lost. Did the Wizards win because RG3 sat court-side? Couldn't have hurt considering it was likely the first time that season that Wizards' fans knew the name of one of Washington's athletes.

Martell Webster, who likely takes that 'every game is the start of a new season, we have no record' philosophy to the degree that he suffers from cognitive lapses concerning the Wizards' winning percentage, lamented "I mean, did you guys not hear the announcements? It’s like, Chris Singleton, yay. They call LeBron’s name, and it’s like, jeez. Tonight was an away game, and we won. We won on the road at home. How crazy is that?"  That's right Martell. People aren't going to pay upwards of $100 (or 300X that for a real team) to watch a D-League runner-up. Fans are paying to see LeBron & co and will cheer accordingly

Explanations for the win are manifold. In addition to RG3's presence, analysts point to the facts that the team got quality minutes for just the fifth time this season from their best player, Nene, that the Heat overlooked the one-win Wizards, and that the team had been in many close games before so it was only a matter of time until one of those games went the Wizards' way. Others have pointed to a season high  in assists for the team, which bodes well for any basketball team but especially the Wizards because it means that Jordan Crawford didn't dribble the ball four times past half-court and hoist at the first smell of an open shot and instead passed to high percentage scorers, like Nene and Seraphin.

Head coach Randy Wittman provided the classix us-versus-the-world explanations: "I told the guys, the only people that really think you have a chance tonight is us here right in this room. [The media] don't believe, the outside didn't believe, and I said we need to have a statement game. What better opportunity to come and play in front of the fans that we knew were going to be here and beat this team. They took it to heart."

Basketball is interesting and differs from other major sports in that it doesn't have a farm system. (Yes, there is the D-League but that's where hopelessly over-drafted picks go to whither while GMs pray some other acquisition can save their job or the likes of Carmelo Anthony's little brother and his friends get to play organized basketball while enhancing their occupational stature for nightclubbing ) Baseball and hockey have their minor leagues and football has the SEC and the fact that most players are in college (including red-shirting) for at least a full four years.

In basketball perennially under-performing teams almost never get premium quality free agents (and have to overpay for mediocre ones), which means they have to build through the draft. The Wizards have been building for half a decade with no sign of an end to construction in sight. Because of the absence of a legitimate farm league, the Wizards regularly field players, like Bradely Beal and Jan Vesely, whom while one day could potentially succeed, in the present have no reason to be on an NBA basketball court. So how did the Wizards win?

As in all professional sports grossly out-matched teams occasionally win when fans make such a mockery of their relative futility in comparison to an opponent that  players begin to question their own dignity and self-respect. (The media aggrandizes such spectacle as when an hour prior to the game Sportscenter ran multiple segments about the stark difference between the teams while analysts mockingly prognosticated blow-out scores.) Despite the fact that three-quarters of the Wizards wouldn't make the Heat's roster all were AAU, high school and Division 1 superstars so, save Michael Olowokandi or Adam Morrison, every NBAer has exceptional potential and on the right night can compete with any level of talent. Fortunately for the Wizards that right night came against the Heat and was aided by a sports meme arising in reaction to the absurdity of the match-up in the first place.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

LeBron James in Two Years and Two Commercials

Much has been discussed of LeBron's desire to shed the villain image he earned after so acrimoniously departing the Cavaliers for a South Beach team with nobody named Jawad Williams or Antawn Jamison on it. His "Rise" Nike commercial in response to the backlash to "The Decision" epitomized LeBron's effort to cast himself as some dissident anti-hero (with explicit homage to Barkley's "I'm not a role model"). It was almost like LeBron (perhaps at the behest of his courtiers) sought to rebrand himself as the next Kobe or Jordan. But there's no marketing or branding or recreating a Kobe/  Jordan. Those two are supernaturally egomaniacal. They're competition addicts that unlike the rest of humanity are incapable of basking in success. For them competition feeds a beast that always wants more. Only in the immediate aftermath of epochal successes (i.e., NBA Titles) will they hug a trophy and exhibit short-term exigence. But that wears off and they're back jonesing  and expecting to repeat the feat but next time with greater intensity. "Not five rings? Not six rings? . . . " That wasn't LeBron. That was LeBron impersonating what he thinks Jordan or Kobe would think or say. Save his fingernail-biting LeBron doesn't possess that sort of obsessive compulsive, fixated mentality. His gift is that he's the closest thing to superhuman that this generation of humans will witness. It's a combination of spectacular work ethic, intelligence and an ability to transport a large amount of mass with nonhuman speed and quickness. The commercial ends with LeBron asking, "Should I be who you want me to be?"

Which in this more recent commercial LeBron answers that he wants to be who he thinks you [fans] want him to be. After winning his first title, LeBron joins Samsung and fans are introduced to a debranded (or, unrebranded) LeBron. Where in the "Rise" commercial LeBron basically mocks fans for thinking they could understand his position or have an idea what it takes to win a title, the Samsung commercial opens from almost the exact opposite perspective. LeBron is making breakfast for his sons, sharing bites of cereal with them, playfully goofing around over a silly picture, and the scene ends with a shot of (presumably) his fiancee and a text from Magic Johnson, a much more respectable and likable basketball analyst than the "friends (read entourage)" he cites in the "Rise" commercial. So LeBron, the family man. The rest of the commercial consists of a lighthearted man-of-the-people montage: driving through Miami while enamored kids chase after him, stopping to take pictures with fans, visiting a pedestrian barber shop, and taking a call from a coach from his amateur days to remind us that LeBron hasn't changed (kind of mash-up of JLo's "Jenny from the Block" and Us Weekly's "Celebs are just like us" segments). None of this is to say that this 'new' LeBron is disingenuous; rather LeBron won his title and now seems confident in how he wants to present his public image.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Three Iterations of the Same Human Being

None work in refrigeration wholesale. Yet.


Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Bobcats Trade Matt Carroll for Hakim Warrick

In other related news, Blockbuster Co. has reported that it rented 0 total VHS copies of Total Recall in North America during the third quarter of 2012.

Joey Harrington has no comment on a petition demanding legislative mandate that he stay retired from competitive football.

The Gallatin County (MT) Council has announced that it will delay it's vote on the sale of an open space bond until later in the week when the full council can convene.

The USDA has no plans to change the date of its forthcoming crop forecasting corn yield report.

New academic studies show that an excess of points in contrast to the opposition's point total remains a primary determinant of success in sports.

Amblin Entertainment has made no plans for a remake of 1986's The Money Pit.

C-SPAN3 plans to air its regularly scheduled programming this evening.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

CWebb > Shaq

TNT's Inside the NBA stands out as the superior pregame show for all sports. (If you doubt this attempt to follow a Shannon Sharpe-Dan Marino exchange or actually pay attention to what Terry Bradshaw says--that should mitigate any uncertainties.) Inside the NBA is the only pregame show perhaps ever that can be watched as entertainment in and of itself.

Since Mark Jackson left the analysis has been relatively superficial but that means little because an unscripted Charles Barkley is the star. Barkley creates a mock-narrative of the show's cast in such a way that they all devolve into a lot of unspectacular hybrid hoophead-fratbros of which Barkley situates himself as the least spectacular. The show has started to suffer however since TNT replaced Chris Webber with Shaq. See Webber along with the other hosts understood the most important thing about talent on a format, like Inside the NBA.  When there's talent, in this case Barkley, you don't get in the way. You simply provide bits of content in a comment, a color scheme to a suit, or even a run to the tele-screen in Kenny's case and let Barkley react.

Shaq destroys this flow and his ego impedes on Barkley during critical moments of comedy. It would be one thing if Barkley was the fellow egoist, whose shtick was based on belittling others. But it's not. Barkley gets comedy and recognizes that what makes him so likable and humorous is that no matter how much grief he gives Kenny or Ernie he's going to take it back over his weight, drinking,  gambling, or some other personal misstep. Shaq however takes every bit of jesting from Barkley as a personal affront and will often challenge Barkley directly on some insignificant matter that was really about developing off-the-cuff inane comedy.

Here are two examples from this season's TNT telecasts (NBA doesn't allow you to share content so the video isn't provided in the script). In the first, the group is making fun of Shaq and Barkley for a fight the two had as players where Barkley threw the ball of Shaq's head after a hard foul. There's a segment where Mike Tyson jokes that he will "kick Barkley's ass". The producers then bring up a tweet from sport writer, Jason Whitlock, in which Whitlock says he can take Shaq with a few months of training. Shaq goes alpha male and starts yelling over the other commentators about there being no training. With perfect timing Barkley comes in and says, "You need some training too big guy" to Shaq. If Webber were the recipient he would've known to shut-up, smile and let Barkley go for 20 seconds and at the end come back with a rejoinder about Barkley's weight. Instead Shaq abruptly ends the exchange, gets too serious and challenges, "I'll whoop your ass right now too." Everyone awkwardly laughs it off but Shaq has ruined any potential for the segment.

In the second segment, "Shirt Off Competition", Ernie cites a tweet by Jason Whitlock saying that Shaq is out of shape and that Barkley would win in a shirt-off competition. In response to the tweet, Barkley goes into a verbal stream of conscience where he tries to list the West Coast city that Whitlock,his friend, is from. (Ernie informs him that Kansas City is that West Coast city.) During this time the producers put up an image from the previous season of Barkley flexing with his shirt off. Kenny reprimands Barkley for the picture saying it looks like he has cornrows in his chest hair and just as he is preparing to let into Barkley, Shaq yells over the other commentators to reiterate the point that he can easily beat Whitlock, an overweight sports writer, in a boxing match. Fortunately, not even Shaq could ruin this . . .

Thursday, November 1, 2012

NBA Week 0.5 Recap

The NBA's decision to schedule Miami-Boston during Wizards-Cavaliers was an insult to the latter team's fans. We already know how far our organizations are from contending. When there's only one other game to flip between it looks like we're  watching two different leagues--Earl Barron wouldn't be allowed in Miami's weight room much less on their team..

NBA owners locked-out it's players last year because the owners felt players took too great a share of revenue. Explain then why one year later, DeMar DeRozan, whose numbers declined in virtually every major category between his second and third seasons, landed a $40 million extension from an organization that hasn't smelled the faintest fart of winning in his three seasons with the team? To top that off Stephen Curry, who's promising offensively but has the ankle structure of a newborn foal, gets a $44 million extension? Either re-negotiations for local TV contracts are projecting far greater revenue for organizations than they were last year, or in 2016-17 when the two sides can opt out of the current collective bargaining agreement DeRozan/ Curry will be their generation's Rashard Lewis/ Arenas for that negotiation.

You have to believe that Juwan Howard saw the Heat's championship ring presentation as his final opportunity for regaining high-income employment. He looked like he approached that 15 minutes like he was lobbying for a major stake in federal highway appropriation funding. Those last two decades of family planning have resulted in a substantial portion of ol' Juwan's wages getting garnished.


Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Cam Newton Post-Game News Conference: Feelings Still Hurt


Cam Newton has the hurtest feelings in the NFL. Cam Newton has the hurtest feelings in North and South Carolina. Cam Newton's hurt feelings result partially from his already existing hurt feelings thus creating a cyclical disaster whereby hurt feelings maker hurter feelings which grow exponentially into even more hurter feelings until he has the hurtest feelings. Below is a brief analysis of Cam's Hurt Feelings (aka Post-Game) News Conference--working title Hurt Feelings of the Cam, by the Cam, for the Cam.

0:05 It's just not me . . .
This is the thesis of the Hurt Feelings News Conference (HFNC)--IT'S NOT CAM'S FAULT.

0:09 We find a way to keep the game close . . .
Cam means they, as in everyone on and associated with the Carolina Panthers' organization--including fans, state residents supporting other teams, unborn future fans--are responsible and not one, Cam Newton, who by the way don't you feel sorry for me, Cam, I mean look at all the downtrodden head wagging. I, Cam, am near tears. What does the Hurt Feelings barometer top out at? 10? I, Cam, am a 12. So hurt.

0:12 Whether it's me? I don't know . . .
No, I, Cam, know. It's not me. Still them.

0:15 Whether it's the coordinator? I don't know. The players overall? I don't know.
Among others, yes, I, Cam, think it's the coordinator. And definitely the other players.

0:26 I'm looking forward to a game where we put up 35 points.
Cam means, I'm looking forward to throwing for 600 yards and running for 200 in a game like I did last year. I don't care who wins.  

0:38 You can point out to a lot of things that can come to us being defeated.
The score being the primary thing. Presumably there are others.

0:45 I'm only going to control what I can control and that's myself.
[See comment @ 0:05, e.g. "thesis of HFNC"]

 1:00  . . . . . 
Cam (to Cam): Feelings are waaaayyyyyyy to hurt to listen to this question.

1:17 You gotta call the plays. It's kind of putting a strangle on our passing game . . .
Did I, Cam, have an opportunity to blame the running backs yet? Their fault. BIG time.

1:33 I don't care if we kick the ball from the seventy . . .
See 1:00. I, Cam, told you my feelings were too hurt to listen to this question so if you want to know how we can score more points I'll tell you that we're just going to kick it, punt it, whatever, I don't care.

1:48 You see it with countless games where we just find a way to keep it close . . .
Except for the Giants. In that one everyone else messed up way too bad for a close loss. Hurt Feelings went from a 7 to a 9 that Thursday night. Haven't been below an 8 since. The only reason it dropped to 8 was because LeBron sent me that Edible Arrangements' bouquet.

1:50 We just find a way to keep the game close . . . 
By "we" I, Cam, mean "they".

2:16 . . . 
Cam (to Cam): They lettin' a woman in here ask me these questions?

2:34 Only thing I control, sweetheart, is myself . . .
See thesis. In the finale, Cam here appears to adapt the thesis for HFNC to incorporate mild chauvinism to accommodate @2:16.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

The Controversy Surrounding Kansas City's QB Controversy

After starting QB Matt Cassel suffered a concussion in Week 5, the Kansas City Chiefs turned to back-up Brady Quinn and there are rumors of a QB controversy that Quinn may take over the starting position. Apparently Microsoft or Google built an algorithm into their software because simply typing the words "Quinn" "take over" and "starting" in that order instantaneously rejects what is typed and deletes the sentence.  In fact, that first sentence was only accomplished with cutting and pasting and entering a non-text .jpg picture of the name "Brady Quinn". (The JPEG file was necessary because the engineers at Google/ Microsoft had such foresight that they included algorithms that accounted for anytime you try to type that "Brady Quinn will become starting QB" and would automatically reject any sentence that contains many deviations that not only state definitely that he will start, but also anything implying such a scenario.)

Matt Cassel certainly isn't deserving of a starting QB role in the SEC West much less the NFL. Over the first few weeks he's achieved the lowest QB rating in the League and put an a Blaine Gabbertian performance that includes pioneering an air assault that over the course of 60 minutes wouldn't amount  to enough passing yards to clear the left field wall at Tropicana Field--i.e., the LLWS field of the team named after the spade-like fish that killed the Crocodile Hunter.

Quinn's career started off ominously when at the draft somebody pranked him--or, "punk'd" if one wishes to remain in line with mid-2000s zeitgeist--by convincing Quinn to sit in the Draft's green room, which is typically reserved for the prospects that are projected to go in the top 15 or so picks. At first it was amusing to watch Quinn sit and sit and not get picked and with each passing team maintain the look of anticipation that an individual that spends four-fifths of his income on Powerball tickets holds when he listens to the near statistically impossible daily number not pop-up. Around pick 20 the amusement quickly digressed to discomfort as an awareness set in that you are watching someone on national television that possesses a perception of his own self-worth that was in gross contrast to that of the 7.1 billion other humans on his planet.

The Browns eventually ended up picking Quinn, which made sense because unless your name is Bernie Kosar getting drafted by the Browns to play QB qualifies as "adding insult to injury". With the Browns, Quinn's most notable moment came when after throwing an interception he went for a cheap shot to the knees of Ravens' Terrell Suggs, who was out of the play. Last year, Quinn was with the Broncos where he backed-up Tim Tebow, which if you back-up the person that backs-up Mark Sanchez then that is kind of like the universe not to subtly telling you that, occupationally speaking, you are intrinsically malfeasant. So now there's controversy in Kansas City over whether to start Cassel or Brady? This has to represent perhaps the best grounds for instantaneously contracting the NFL by one team. 

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Write-in Candidate:Jeff Boss (Ind?)

About a month before general elections most county or local governments provide voters with a packet that among other pieces of voter information lists candidates running for President and Vice President. Typically the nominees are organized according to those from the two major political parties (Dems and Repubs) and the two major, non-major political parties (Libertarian and Green). Then there is a second larger group of write-in candidates from less established, up-and-coming parties. This later group tends to consist of candidates from the extreme left or right, or of candidates that see a national campaign as the vehicle most appropriate to achieve some singular policy, such as reinforcing prohibition.

Depending upon the state the candidate comes from an individual might need only a few hundred signatures to get their name on the write-in ballot. Such an achievable task explains the large number of write-in candidates and likely contributes to the absence of media attention paid to these candidates. Contrary to voting theory, it wasn't the purpose of a democratic republic to create a two-party system and as such, running up to the November 6 election DBSF will use this platform to highlight the positions, plans, and interests of some of these less recognized candidates.

Jeff Boss is a write-in candidate from New Jersey. Mr. Boss's platform isn't as policy-specific as other candidates. Aligning him on the political spectrum is challenging as well because he's one of those candidates that focuses on a particular, albeit significant, issue. The background of Mr. Boss's website consists of the flag, a bald eagle and two images--one larger than the other--of the Statue of Liberty all of which suggest deep patriotism. He seems to be a candidate focused largely on a domestic issue. More specifically, he states that he personally witnessed the National Security Agency (NSA) arrange the September 11th attacks on the US. His main evidence for this claim is that he has recorded over 500 people stating that the NSA provided them $20K for their participation in and ensuing silence related to the attack.

Mr. Boss's campaign hones in specifically on the role of NSA in the terrorist attack and he provides no other information on his website with which to judge his platform. He does however include links of allegations of major political figures and government agencies that have plotted to harm him or to undermine his campaign. Also, last April over a period of four days you could have met him on the corner of 17th and K St in Washington, DC for a period of 30 minutes. DBSF's take is that at this stage in the game, Mr. Boss might be best served if he broadened his perspective to more domestic and international issues and paid greater attention to current and prospective events. That being said, for voters interested in a candidate with a zealous commitment to the circumstances of September 11th--and literally no other identified priorities--then Mr. Boss deserves consideration.


Thursday, October 4, 2012

3 Things: Sheed, Make-up Call, AI

First, Raasheed Wallace has joined the New York Knicks. Assuming Rasheed has some legs left/ isn't in Petron-shape this makes sense for 10-15 minutes of solid post-defense. But where else is it that DBSF heard about a PF or big man that on the offensive side of the court prefers the company of the perimeter and is zealot of the 'shoot your way out of a slump' ideology? That's right, half the Knicks' roster.

Second, the NBA plans to fine floppers. The players are all like, "Just another way for Stern to take a penny." The fans are all like, "Whatever. Why isn't there an NFL game on Tuesday and Wednesday nights?" DBSF's take? Classic Anti-Europeanism/ South Americanism. Flopping is a practice of futbolers, most of whom are of Euro and Argentinian/ Brazilian-descent. Maybe this is a make-up call for the no-jerseys, jewelry, or chains on the bench racism targeted at four-fifths of the league.

Thirdly,  every October DBSF listens to Jewelz aka Allen Iverson's "40 Bars" single because of it's obvious influence on Tribe Called Quest, Wu-Tang Clan, Gang Starr et al. Well DBSF was caught by the following lyric: "For the year 2G the rap game change for one name/ Jewelz aim to slain anything on this plane/ Remains are found when the best kept secret get heated/ You went platinum wit a ghost writer, so in the game you cheated" To paraphrase Allen is saying that he's a rapper of significance and that some other unnamed rapper didn't write his/ her lyrics and, thus, is unworthy of merit. In between those two points Allen is pretty much incoherent. But is he? One more time: "For the year 2G the rap game change for one name/ Jewelz aim to slain anything on this plane" Slain anything on this plane? DBSF's thought? Terrorist. 

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Lendale White > Wade Boggs

DBSF has previously recognized professional athletes' acts of super-human consumption. In that pantheon Andre the Giant reigns supreme as he once allegedly drank something like 300+ beers in a sitting. Relative to Andre the other demi-gods all come off as mere mortals. There's footage of Charles Barkley guzzling what look like consecutive bottles of Petron, and Wade Boggs would supposedly drink 60-70 Miller Lites during cross-country flights. A new-to-DBSF posting alleges that Lendale White, who's best known as a former college stand-out at USC that ate--and apparently, now, drank--his way out of the first round and later the NFL, once downed 75 shots of Petron with Vince Young. White was listed at 245 but probably played closer to 280 so discount 10 of those shots on account of him equaling two regular-sized Eastern European males.

The post sheds light on other peculiar spending patters of the 2006-2008 Tennessee Titans. Supposedly, Vince Young would regularly run up a $5,000 tab at TGIFriday's. Now according to Yahoo! Answers the most expensive item on TGIFriday's menu is the Jack Daniel's Ribs and Shrimp at $24.02.Twenty-four oh-two goes into 5K almost 210 times. There are only 53 players on an active NFL roster so assuming that Vince took the entire team out to dinner (which the article doesn't state) and they all purchased two of the most expensive entrees and spent an additional $25 each on drinks or appetizers then Vince still managed to spend over $1K personally on Diddy Ups and Ultimate Long Island Iced Teas. What makes this even more extraordinary is that the $5K tab at that particular discount family chain restaurant was standard operating procedures for Vince. The post also claims that after home games Vince would go to Morton's and down $600 shots of Louis XIII. Vince likely rationalized this to himself along the lines of, "Hell, Fisher's gonna chew me a new one  for throwing for 138 yards and 3 pics but, hey, there's grounds for celebration--I picked up 45 on the ground and worked  on a weekend. Is it too early to get my Friday's on?"

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

DBSF Downgrades Wizards: No More Dray

DBSF is undeniably partial to Andray Blatche--easily his favorite Wizard since Tom Hammond or Chris Whitney that wasn't named Kevin Duckworth, Ledell Eckles, or LaBradford Smith. When Andray felt like playing and probably dedicated at least 10 hours over the last seven days to basketball-related activities or something resembling physical fitness he had Karl Malone potential. However most weeks after carefully calculating the cost-benefit of expending time and cardiovascular resources at a gym as opposed to a Washington-area discotheque and/ or his couch XBox'ing and/ or Sportscenter'ing the former caused so much blood on the Dray Blatche cost-benefit ledger that it was foolish to ever entertain such options.

Well now Dray is gone and DBSF appears to be the only Wizards' fan remotely affected. (That might also be because of the seemingly inherent singularity of Wizards' fandom. If you want to 'glass half full it' then it also might be reasonable to say that "all the Wizards' fan are--pardon, is--affected by Dray's departure".) Dray signed with the Nets, whom play in a city not exactly conducive to team and basketball commitment for players with an inclination to explore local night culture(s). Upon departing Dray left us/ DBSF one fleeting message:"It doesn't matter where u start it's where you finish". Two minutes later--the perfectionist that he is--Dray re-Tweeted us another, final, fleeting message: "It doesn't matter where you start it's where you finish". Always one to recruit more Dray Blatche fans DBSF will close with Dray's two best tweets from the last two months: "Who tryin to hoop we need more ppl" (August 25) and  "Just missed my flight" (July 28). So Dray.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Week 1 Assessment: Rookie QBs

After Week 1 RGIII possesses the highest QB rating in the NFL. The four other rookie QBs fared far worse and graded from D-minus (Russell Wilson) to F-with potential (Andrew Luck) to F-with potential for vocational schooling (Ryan Tannehill), down to F-with just call the Department of Social Services and get this individual signed up for Disability Compensation and Medicaid as he will be a life-long supplicant of the state (Brandon Weeden). It should also be noted that all of the second-year starters looked promising and ranged from exceptional improvement (Christian Ponder) to solid (Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Cam Newton). Only Andy Dalton--grant it, against a perennially-oppressive Ravens' defense--Mike Tomczak'd it with a 65 QB rating (QBR).

While RGIII was awarded NFC player of the week for his outstanding performance, it's too early to anoint him as the top of the 2012 rookie QB class. The achievement of a road win in New Orleans is undeniable, however RGIII's performance is qualified by the Saints' off-season turmoil which presumably resulted in internal discord and definitely resulted in a one-year interim head coach, and the performance of Redskins' rookie RB Alfred Morris (perhaps another late-round Shanahan RB steal). And, while it likely had minimal if any bearing on RGIII's performance, Drew Brees' uncharacteristic 2 interceptions (he had 6 in 8 home games last season) contributed to the win. It's unlikely that RGIII will repeat week 1's performance many more times this season but DBSF anticipates he'll have the most successful rookie season. Consider the following.

Tannehill and Weeden are non-factors in the rookie QB competition. Their participation on Sundays is perfunctory in nature as the regulations of the NFL demand that the team possessing the football have a quarterback on the field to receive the snap from the center and, thus, signal the start of play--so their presence is more procedural than athletic. DBSF never bought into the Russell Wilson hype as there's a reason scouts overlook 5'11" ex-NC State/ Wisconsin QBs. Luck will probably have more passing yards and touchdowns than RGIII because of the Colts' limited offensive options and because if Jim Irsay wants fans to pay $100+ a ticket for a team everyone knows probably isn't winning more than  six games then he better give them the main attraction throwing the ball 40+ times for 60 straight minutes. In the end, barring injury RGIII will likely end up with the highest QBR and the most wins as Shanahan's system, team circumstances, and schedule are most conducive to that outcome.

All that being said, Brandon Weeden's Week 1 performance deserves closer attention. To provide some perspective on its sheer futility, his 5 QBR was less than half Ryan Leaf's second worst game--a 4-15, 26 yards, 0 TD, and 1 Int in a 1998 loss to the Broncos. It did however surpass Leaf's worst outing--1-15, 4 yards, 0 TD, and 2 int, which equates to a zero-point-zero QBR, in a September 1998 loss to the Chiefs. (Leaf's AFC West divisional play wasn't too strong during his 1998 rookie season. In five games against the Raiders, Seahawks, Chiefs and Broncos he averaged going 9-23, 96 yards, 0.2 TDs, and 1.6 int per game.) In addition to not quarterbacking the worst rookie game in the history of the NFL, Weeden has more room for optimism considering that mathematically speaking his next game will probably be the greatest game-to-game improvement for a quarterback this season in the NFL. If in Week 2 Weeden can complete around half of his passes, throw for about 150 yards and no touchdowns and one or two interceptions then he will have increased his QBR by a multiple of 10-12. (Even Ryan Leaf can't boast that after following up his 0.0 QBR game with a 22.9 QBR [0TD, 4 pics against the Giants] because of complications/ undefined form that arise when zero serves as the denominator.)

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

NFL Projections: Divisional Leaders

Having watched zero NFL preseason games and just recently learned that Terrell Owens was/ is no longer a Seattle Seahawk, DBSF isn't on the best grounds to predict divisional winners. So to aid and abet his picks, he researched other online projections, which were all likely based on a combination of the outcomes of Madden games and tribal-regional biases.

NFC East: The Eagles are probably the best team and if Vick can play at least three quarters in 13 or more games they should have a good chance. That won't happen and with the Redskins' having a rookie QB and the NFL still requiring the Cowboys to play games in December, Giants are the safe bet.

NFC North: Something like 16 people on ESPN.com predicted the Packers. Vikings should be a non-factor and it's too difficult to trust a Detroit franchise that is just three season removed from a 2-30 spurt. DBSF is going with the Bears seeing as 21st century Wisconsin doesn't strike him as a perennial winner type of state even though it's made great strides in popularizing efforts aimed at slashing public spending and denigrating teachers' unions.

NFC South: Saints. Probably. Definitely if they had their coach? They finished the regular season on an eight-game winning streak. Barring abnormally stellar play by other divisional teams, the Falcons should be the Saints only competition. Unfortunately, for the Falcons, they seem destined for a decade of 9-7 or 10-6 bridesmaidsdom.

NFC West: DBSF predicts serious regression to the mean for the 49ers. Likely of the 8-8 variety. However San Francisco's competition consists of a team starting a rookie third-round pick, the 1-15 St. Louis Rams, and the Cardinals, whose roster seems to suggest that a season of low double-digit loses warrant a post -season locker room champagne celebration. Arizona managed to close the season winning four of five games so DBSF is going Cardinals because he has more faith in the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe than he does in Alex Smith repeating last season's success.

AFC East: Jets are due for an epic 5-11 collapse. Sanchez will be gone and so will Tebow and Ryan. That leaves the Bills and the Dolphins and if you were to combine their rosters into a single organization, the joint team wouldn't show in half the NFL divisions. Patriots by default and superiority.

AFC North: There are troubling cosmic consequences associated with competitive Cincinnati professional sports organizations. The Cleveland Browns would be best served by one of those UEFA rules that relegates perennially inferior team to a lower league until they merit promotion. Somewhere between the Football Bowl Subdivision and the Football Championship Subdivision the Browns would likely catch their stride. DBSF likes the Ravens because teams that draft better win better.

AFC South: Tie. Nobody gets to go to the playoffs. Texans should win the division and DBSF likes Indianapolis in a distant second. Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert have great potential on paper; on the field it's a different story.

AFC West: Kansas City is one of those teams that should be rolled together with a few of those Florida and Rustbelt NFL teams to create a roster of super-mediocrity. Carson Palmer is making eight-figures after quitting on his last playoff-caliber team because they wouldn't trade him. That doesn't bode well for team cohesion or commitment. If Peyton Manning plays over a half in 14 or more games the Broncos edge out the Chargers with both going 10-6 but Denver taking the advantage in head-to-head games.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Jeremy Affeldt & Paternity Leave

Some facts about Jeremy Affeldt. 1) He's a pitcher for the San Francisco Giants. 2) You probably didn't know that unless he was on your fantasy baseball team or your last name was Affeldt. 3) Based on the vision tab of The Jeremy Affeldt Foundation he's pretty hardcore Christian, 4) which is mitigated by the fact that apparently he's really dedicated to fighting child slavery, which also makes it really hard to ridicule him . . . so number five is said in light-hearted jest. 5) Jeremy Affeldt re-joined the Giants' roster earlier this week after missing a few games for paternity leave.

Affeldt's a set-up closer and averages probably around 3 innings of pitching a week. For those unfamiliar with baseball's temporal landscape 3 innings means, including warming-up Affeldt probably plays for an hour a week. Take team meetings and practice into account he probably puts in 10 hour work weeks. Tops. Like averages 6-8 hour work weeks until things really starting picking up at the end of the season in September and October. Major League Baseball also has a 5 month off-season. DBSF ran some back-of-the-envelope calculations--Affeldt probably works the equivalent of eight 40 hour work weeks per year. So someone who has well over 150 free hours a week--during his profession's 'high-season'--needed a few days off the birth of a child, and--another critical point--his wife, not Jeremy, had the baby. Walking into your manager's office and submitting that leave slip epitomizes audacity. Well done Jeremy.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

NBA: Cup of Coffee Review

Among its many great resources, Basketball-Reference.com collects data on NBA players that played exactly one game, or just long enough for a cup of coffee. (DBSF didn't vet the data for accuracy but a superficial review suggests it seems right.) While over 40% of the players went scoreless and only received a handful of minutes there are some noteworthy accomplishments. Oliver Lafayette, a Houston grad, went for 7 points, 4 boards, 2 assists, and shot 50% but didn't get a second game. In the early 1960's Dave Gunther had 2 points, 3 boards, and 3 assists in 5 minutes of play. There were also some guys who were likely keenly aware of the fleeting nature of their opportunity as a professional basketball player and immediately started chucking: Bill Stricker and Forest Able averaged greater than one field goal attempt per minute on the court. In 1947-48 Nat Hickey might have had the most memorable game going 0-6 from the floor and collecting 5 fouls. 51 seasons later Trevor Winter averaged a foul per minute in also accruing 5 fouls in 5 minutes.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Campaign Finance. Triangulation.

The website HoopHype released a list of NBA players, owners, and executives and the amounts they've donated to candidates in the 2012 presidential campaign. DBSF wanted to get a better picture of what type of NBA employee was giving to which candidate. So, he exported the data into statistical software and conducted something called logistic regression, which is often used to analyze binary outcomes, like yes/ no questions, or candidate A vs candidate B. In conducting the quantitative analysis DBSF went through a range of rigorous exercises and nuanced statistical modifications to make sure his findings were accurate. The results are as follows: The young black guys that play basketball gave $ to Obama. The old white guys that own the stadiums & local energy/ utility companies gave $ to Romney. DBSF has pitched the research to top economics and political science journals. Fingers crossed.

Triangulation is a way of using angles to measure location. In the social sciences it is a way of using multiple sources to confirm something (i.e., double/ triple checking). So like if you want to know if there was a sequel to Double Team you could check on Wikipedia and IMDB and maybe just a few random Google searches to learn that like every other movie Jean-Claude Van Damme (and Dennis Rodman for that matter) starred in there was never a sequel. Melky Cabrera doesn't get this concept of triangulation. After finding out that he had failed a drug test that would incur a 50 game suspension, Cabrera allegedly paid a colleague $10K to create a fake website that claimed that a legal supplement could cause the failed test. It is important to note that as of 2010 there were 1.2 zettabytes (aka 1.3 trillion gigabytes) of information on the internet. Ergo, there isn't much that the average MLB investigator or, 4 year old, would have to do to verify if one--yes one--questionable website presented accurate information. And this says nothing of other alternative, such as information in print form, or simply calling medical professionals. That being said, the effort and ingenuity is worthy of praise.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Three Best Scenes from Robocop 3

Constantin Stanlislavski. Stella Adler. Lee Strasberg. Anymore is needless distraction. 

1. Officer Down (39:18) 

2. Friends (28:30)

3. Family Memories (01:00:18)

Thursday, August 9, 2012

David Garrard Listed as Dolphins' Starting QB

There's actually multiple articles supporting this statement. Here and here. And he missed last year because the Jaguars didn't have a need for him as they were already secure at the QB position with Luke McCown and Blaine Gabbert, whom combined for a 62 QB rating in 2011. Losing a QB battle to a McCown is like being wait-listed for court-mandated drug and alcohol counseling. Long story short, DBSF is Blackberry bearish on the Dolphins in 2012. 

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Goodman League: Top Billin'

So DBSF loves the Goodman League because it's local and is having it's showcase in Upper Marlboro (the county seat of DBSF's personal own Prince George's County). But he hates the Goodman League because every year he gets confused and thinks that it's one giant pro-am summer-long event dedicated to Tamir Goodman and that never ends up being the case (yet). This year's showcase has confirmed appearances from Kevin Durant, John Wall and Ty Lawson, and there's probably few things cooler than watching a 7-footer with impeccable touch and athleticism go for 70 in a quarter and a half on D1 college players without ever tying his sneakers or witnessing Lawson and Wall's speed first-hand in the intimacy of a high school gym.

Buuutttt, also scheduled to appear and play is Chris Brown, who if you don't know anything about him besides the fact that when it comes to fist-fighting he doesn't discriminate based on gender, he's boy band-big with teenagers, whom it turns out--and not surprisingly really--get over past indiscretions relatively quickly and demand little with respect to exculpation, and calls his fans "Team Breezy", which DBSF will allow others to make their own judgement on someone who calls himself "Breezy". (And DBSF isn't necessarily implying that you judge someone with that a self-appointed a nom de guerre pejoratively. The brilliance behind the marketing necessary to keep a 20 year old, who beat up arguably the biggest pop princess of a decade and comes off as delusionally arrogant in many interviews, popular is on par with the brilliance necessary to land a go-kart on Mars with cameras that capture images of a barren red desert.) But if DBSF is going to shell out $30 for a pro-am with the likes of Durant and Wall, who understandably won't be going 100%, he sure as heck isn't trying to have 2012's Nick Carter bring the ball up the court while playing out his own NBA fantasy--that role should be reserved for Gilbert Arenas, who will also be there.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

JR "Chris" Smith v0.5

NY Knicks' SG JR Smith's shot-selection, civil disobedience-approach to defense, and NRAesque commitment to protecting the right to dribble the basketball at any and all times is basically the genesis for Dem Bammas Straight Fryin. So it came as quite a blessing when DBSF learned that JR has a younger brother, Chris, whom just signed (a probably non-guaranteed) contract with the Knicks. As a 6'2" guard, whose best Summer League game was a 10 point, 3 board game against the Raptors--which is like going scoreless and fouling out against the Rockets' summer league team or in the case of a regular season game going on the road against the Magic and upon checking in from the scores' table coughing and immediately infecting the 15K-plus people in attendance with small pox--things aren't looking that promising for little bro. From what DBSF can gander Chris's body art isn't quite up to par with his older bro, and there's still uncertainty on his naked-GF-sext-tweeting game. But one more dribbler, even if it is a watered-down version of THE dribbler, is a bounty for DBSF.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Jacque Vaughn's Right Place in History

After announcing the signing of the organization's new coach, Orlando Magic CEO, Alex Martinis, announced that Vaughn was "the right person for this moment in our history". While preceding history with that possessive "our" concerns DBSF on existential grounds because it suggests multiple temporal orders coexisting, which could then imply that certain space time-continuums are more relevant/ valid than others, which if that were the case would seriously concern DBSF because he has an inkling that the space-time continuum that he's assigned to is likely of lower priority/ value, there's also the possibility that DBSF is just over-thinking all of it.

But moving to the Magic should concern Jacque Vaughn. He's a young ex-player with no head coaching experience. He was an assistant with the Spurs so you can be fairly confident that he knows what he's doing and has potential. But Vaughn should probably have thought more long-term about the job much like Brian Shaw did when he turned down the Charlotte Bobcats job (probably) because it would have ruined his resume and set him back a decade until he could get a head coaching job for another contender. After Ryan Anderson left for too much money, the Magic are left with Dwight Howard, who will likely be gone by the end of the year, and Hedo Turkoglu, who DBSF has suspects takes cigarette breaks between quarters.

Because Howard has been so mercurial with respect to free agency over the last year and as of now appears adamant that he won't sign an extension with any team, his value on the trading block is limited. In a worst case scenario, which DBSF puts around 20% at the moment, the Magic could lose Howard and get nothing in return. If that happens the Magic will be relying on 'Big Baby' Glen Davis for the majority of their offense, which is a virtual guarantee that every season ends with your organization hoping that a ping-pong ball with a low number shoots out of lottery machine so you can retain the rights to whoever was one of John Calipari's three best 19 year old from the previous season. Of course, recommending Vaughn stay with the Spurs and wait out a few lottery picks ignores the possibility that the head coaching opportunity might not be there in four or five years. However if the Magic can't achieve some compensation for Dwight Howard it will likely spell a decade and a half of NBDL purgatory for Jacque Vaughn if he ever wants to be a head coach again.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Bron Bron: Playoff PER

After beating the Thunder and winning the NBA Championship last month, LeBron's critics for the most part acknowledged that he could win a Finals and that he wasn't a choke-artist. The fact that either of these arguments were ever entertained much less blabbered incessantly by the likes of Steven A. Smith reflected a long-standing narrative based on mass-irrationality and the fact that basketball--more so than any other sport--is analyzed almost exclusively on a sample size of last night. The media and fans want to generalize from the most recent events, while ignoring a player's broader body of work. (This, of course, equally affects owners and league executive as evidenced by anytime Elton Brand, Rashard Lewis, or Dan Gadzurik are offered money to play basketball.)

What's so interesting about the argument that LeBron wasn't/ isn't clutch is that it is actually diametrically untrue--statistically speaking he is arguably the greatest playoff player ever, save for Jordan and one or two others. Consider the following table on the 250 greatest single season playoff PERs in NBA history. (PERs is the metric that increases for positive performance and decreases for negative performance while being standardized on a per-minute basis to account for the fact that just because a player plays more than another player it doesn't mean he played better.) The top two PERs on the list, which are 4-5 points higher than the third highest, are Hakeem's 1998 playoffs (38.96) and LeBron's 2009 playoffs (37.39). Because the average PER for those playoffs was 15.00 Hakeem and LeBron's scores mean that each player was equivalent to two-and-a-half average NBA playoff players. So the 1988 Rockets and 2009 Cavs seemingly played an entire playoffs with 6.5 players against 5 on the opposition.

Of the 250 greatest playoff performances based on PER, LeBron has 6. He's only played in 7 playoffs and the one that missed the 250 occurred when he was 21 years old and he still had a 23.2 PER, which was only 0.18 less than the 250th greatest NBA single season playoffs by one player. To offer some context as to how other superstars have fared with respect to numbers of playoffs in the top 250: Wilt (6), Duncan (9), Shaq (10), Tony Parker (1), Reggie Miller (2), Paul Pierce (1), Jordan (11), Oscar Robertson (4), Magic (3), Bird (2), Kobe (6), Garnett (4), Karl Malone (6), Kareem (7), Hakeem (8), Gervin (4), Durant (2), Dwade (5), the Admiral (6), Sir Charles (8), AI (3), and Alonzo Mourning (2). 

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

With the Addition of Omer Asik . . .

The Houston Rockets become the least bangable team in the NBA. Based on road trips where you can actually chart that an individual player likely impregnated women in different cities based on children being born in those cities to that player in almost sequential daily order save for minor variance in the human gestation period, DBSF assumes NBAers on the whole are kind of diet Sodom and Gomorrah about their relationships.

So it comes as news that in signing Omer Asik to a three-year $25 million contract--which considering his career high for a game is 11 points suggests that owners have kind of gotten over that 'there are too many bad players with hug contracts' thing from the lockout-- the Rockets are probably the most un-Shawn Kemp team in the NBA. Now this doesn't necessarily have to do with aesthetics as much as it does with the individual circumstances of Rockets' players.

For Asik it's mainly that he's a seven-foot tall Eastern European, which is like being an Eastern European version of American teammate Josh Harrellson, which is another way of saying Arvydas Sabonis. Not saying he doesn't conquer but his numbers are definitely anomalous and seriously skew the mean number of NBA-stranger relationships in a season down. Besides Asik, there's new star PG Jeremy Lin, who could probably kill, but with the religious thing going--and unlike the case of Tim Tebow it seems somewhat genuine, or if nothing else not like it was scripted by a marketing team that pitched something like, "Timmy, look at this map. There's a whole lot of people between those two big blue things on each side of this country. You know what the one thing that everyone that doesn't live right next to those blue things has in common?"--is another aberration w/r/t NBA-stranger relationships.

Not to mention, the Rockets also have a bunch of no name second year players, marginally popular rookies, and Earl Boykins, who at 5'5" and 36 years old, runs into obvious issues of trying to convince strangers that you play in the NBA and, thus, are worth copulating with. That's why barring any major acquisition, like Dwight Howard, the Rockets will probably be the least bangable team in the NBA next season. 


Thursday, July 19, 2012

Redrafting 2009 & 2010

Among its many excellent tools for objective analysis, basketball-reference.com provides a set of advanced statistics by draft pick over the last few drafts. This measures grant an understanding of the value of picks beyond traditional measures, like points or rebounds per game. Below is a list of the top ten picks in the 2009 and 2010 drafts. On the left hand side is the actual pick number, the player's name, and his win share, an advanced metric that estimates the number of wins the player has contributed to his team. After the backslash on the right hand side is the win share redraft, which lists the actual pick number, the player and his win share. Win shares reported here is cumulative so players drafted in 2009 had one more season to compile contributed wins than did players drafted in 2010.

Below shows that based on three seasons of play, only three of the actual lottery picks remained in the redraft top ten of win shares. That total is one more than the number of second round picks that entered the top ten in the redraft.

2009 
1. Blake Griffin (19.0)/ 3. James Harden (21.0)
2. Hasheem Thabeet (2.6)/ 1. Blake Griffin (19.0)
3. James Harden (21.0)/ 18. Ty Lawson (17.3)
4. Tyreke Evans (9.7)/ 26. Taj Gibson (14.4)
5. Ricky Rubio (2.0)/ 10. Brandon Jennings (13.6)
6. Johnny Flynn (-1.0)/ 7. Stephen Curry (13.5)
7. Stephen Curry (13.5)/ 37. Dajuan Blair (13.4)
8. Jordan Hill (4.6)/ 43. Marcus Thornton (11.3)
9. DeMar Derozan (8.1)/ 17. Jrue Holliday (11.1)
10. Brandon Jennings (13.6)/ 21. Darren Collison (11.1)

In contrast to 2009 all but two of the 2010 redrafted players based on win shares were lottery picks. Landry Fields has obviously outperformed his actual second round pick and if the Wizards combine the output of Wall with Booker they have the second best win share after Monroe. (In fact, adding Kevin Seraphin, who finished 15th in the win share redraft would put the Wizards' first round 2010 picks at a combined at 13.8, or two tenths above Greg Monroe.)

2010
1. John Wall (5.7)/ 7.  Greg Monroe (13.6)
2. Evan Turner (4.7)/ 39. Landry Fields (8.6)
3. Derrick Favors (5.9)/ 10. Paul George (8.4)
4. Wesley Johnson (1.9)/ 13. Ed Davis (7.8)
5. DeMarcus Cousins (5.3)/ 9. Gordon Hayward (6.1) 
6. Ekpe Udoh (2.8)/ 3. Derrick Favors (5.9)
7. Greg Monroe (13.6)/ 1. John Wall (5.7)
8. Al-Farouq Aminu (2.0)/ 23. Trevor Booker (5.6)
9. Gordon Hayward (6.1)/ 5. DeMarcus Cousins (5.3)
10. Paul George (8.4)/ 2. Evan Turner (4.7)

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Knicks: Lin?

Carmelo thinks the contract the Rockets offered Lin is ridiculous. Despite Lin being DBSF's third favorite NBA player after the i) Wizards' roster and ii) Bron Bron, he has to agree. But last February when Lin emerged as the Knicks' PG Madison Square Garden stock surged to record highs. Was this causation or correlation? Should the Knicks re-sign Lin?

This might sound absurd but even with Felton and Kidd, Lin is the Knicks best PG. Admittedly there is some bias in DBSF's estimation but last season Lin's PER was 19.9, Felton's was 13.4, and Kidd's was 13.1. (Kidd hasn't been above 15, the league average, in three seasons.) Kidd's age obviously qualifies him in this comparison as at his prime he was far superior to the other two, and he's really being brought on to back-up and to mentor the younger PGs, like Lin (potentially) or Iman Shumpert.

Here's the thing. The Knicks could add Dwight Howard and they still wouldn't make it out of the Eastern Finals (save a LeBron injury, but it is never good basketball-business to plan free agency and a season around arguably the greatest specimen of the male human body becoming in some way physically deficient). So in deciding to sign Lina a rational team should weigh the business side of the equation more so than the let's-win-championships' side.


So here's DBSF's relatively simple calculus for valuing Raymond Felton vs. Jeremy Lin with respect to ROI: How many New York Knicks hats will be purchased in 2012 if the team signs Felton or Lin?


Felton: 1 mom + 1 dad + 2 sisters + 1 brother + 4 cousins + 1 wife + 1 auto mechanic + 4 nephews + 2 neighbors = 17 Knicks hats.


Lin: 1 mom + 1 dad + 2 brothers + 1 GF + 3 Church Friends + 8 Harvard Alumns + 1.3 billion Chinese = 1,300,000,016 Knicks hats.


Maybe Lin?

Thursday, July 12, 2012

An Inauspicious Offseason

Supposedly the reason NBA owners locked out players for all of last year's preseason and a quarter of the regular season was because owners were sick of paying under-performing players in a sport/ country/ global economy of declining revenue. So it seems odd that the very transactions that seemed to spur the lockout are occurring again less than seven months after it ended.

Take Joe Johnson to the Nets. The idea was that Johnson would keep Deron Williams (check) and attract Dwight Howard. With yesterday's signing of Brook Lopez the earliest the Nets could acquire Howard now is January 15. In other words, the Nets have essentially kept their roster intact and added a 31 year old two-guard, whom save for a slight uptick during the lockout season, has been exhibiting declining production while entering the fourth year of a $120 million contract (grant it, the Hawks, not the Nets, offered Johnson the contract).

The Nets however are an exception with respect to spending because their owner Mikhail Prokhorov is post-Communist-country-collapse-I-got-in-on-unregulated-previously-state-run-and-controlled-industries rich, which in comparison to wealth one accumulates from inventing the iPhone is like the difference between iPhone-inventor rich and cool Paleo app-inventor rich. So while money is of little consequence to the Nets, reckless spending does have a collateral effect on the rest of the league as other free agents have grounds to demand excessive compensation, which . . .

Explains Ryan Anderson getting $36 million over four year in a sign and trade with the league-owned Hornets. Here's the thing with Ryan Anderson--he's an awesome fantasy basketball player because he shoots like 8 threes a game and at 6'10" can't help but have 8 or so uncontested defensive rebounds bounce his way. In real life, Anderson is a good* NBA player. The asterisk is because his success is predicated on him being on the court with another player that demands double teams (Dwight Howard), which allows Anderson to reverse-cherry pick at the three point line and loaf around until he gets his baker's dozen wide open looks. On the other side of the court Anderson needs a teammate to fulfill a role that only Dwight Howard can--guard multiple big men--to accommodate for Anderson's passive resistance to defensive confrontation.  

In New Orleans, the other offensive threats will be 19 year old rookies and maybe Eric Gordon, which means Anderson will have to find a way to create his own shot. This is fine in theory but much like when the Jazz asked for more than long-distance hoisting from Mehmet Okur, execution proved to be where the challenge laid. In the end, those more penurious owners will continue to gripe as they and their colleagues pay based on past performance and ignore the circumstances that allow a player like Ryan Anderson to go for 16 and 8 in the regular season but have a PER that places him as being worth about half the average player in the playoffs (which, likely incoincidentally was when the Magic were without Dwight Howard).

Monday, July 9, 2012

Literature & Tyrese Gibson

DBSF was perusing Amazon--no need to inquire about search terms/ phrases--when he came across Tyrese Gibson's How to Get Out of Your Own Way DBSF hasn't read the book and from the publisher's description it looks to be a standard self-empowerment guide based on Tyrese's rags-to-riches experience. Nothing wrong with self-help. (Of course, the publisher should qualify that Gibson's physical aesthetics likely played a significant role in his success and, thus, that results, i.e., Hangin' w/ Mr. Cooper or co-staring w/ Paul Walker, are not ordinary.)

What stuck out to DBSF about the book though was the fact that it had a perfect 5.0 star rating from Amazon customers. (Customers can rank products on a one to five star scale with results being reported in half-star increments.) So, DBSF started thinking: What are some books rated lower than Tyrese Gibson's How to Get Out of Your Own Way?

King James Bible: 3.5 stars, Torah: 4 stars, and the Qur'an: 4.5 stars. Amazon customers rank arguably the three most definitive books of our society lower than one written by a star of both the Transformers and Fast and the Furious franchises.

Marx and Engels' The Communist Manifesto: 3.5 stars. Maybe the most influential sociopolitical book of the 20th century, but still not enough to compete with a book that has a chapter titled "How much do you love yourself?" Don't read it. DBSF spent the 6 minutes necessary. The gist? Think positive and be appreciative of what you have. It takes Tyrese about 40 pages to get to that point.


Lolita (4.5 stars), The Great Gatsby (4 stars), Don Quixote (4.5 stars), A Midsummer Night's Dream (4.5 stars), The Brothers Karamazov (4.5 stars) and Ulysses (4 stars). Not sure what most high schools' summer reading lists consist of but Amazon customers seem to be pushing away from novels and into marginally introspective self-helps. 


But not all is lost. Other five star Amazon classics include The Forever Girl (urban fantasy/ paranormal romance, i.e., "I received this information from an alien. As I told my husband, it was in the Paramus Holiday Inn, I was having a drink at the bar, alone, and this alien approached me. He started talking to me. He bought me a drink, and then I think he must have used some kind of a ray or a mind control device because he forced me to follow him to his room and that's where he told me about the end of the world."  Venkman: So your alien had a room at the Holiday Inn, Paramus? "It might have been a room on the spacecraft made up to look like a room in the Holiday Inn. I can't be sure about that, Peter."), Make it Paleo: Over 200 Grain Free Recipes for any Occasion, Marijuana Horticulture: The Indoor/ Outdoor Grower's Bible, and Mushrooms Demystified. There actually appears to be a trend in that putting the word "Paleo" in your book title will ensure 4-5 star rankings and an Amazon seller's rank that trumps that of most authors that contributed to the canon of Western lit. All Tyrese had to put on his cover was himself in a fitted, button-down cardigan.

Friday, July 6, 2012

Hasheem Thabeet: Life Lottery Winner

DBSF has a theory about this thing called the life lottery. Basically it's the idea that similar to Powerball or any other mega-million interstate lottery there are individuals, who against astronomical odds, win. Except in the life lottery rather than win the rights to a lump sum or annualized cash payment, the individual wins the implicit rights to a fantastic career that they are supernaturally undeserving of.

A classic example from the entertainment industry is Brittney Spears. In the 1990s, she was emerging as a pop star amidst a bevy of other female teenagers of varying talent that basically karaoke'd to tracks likely passed on by 'NSync and The Backstreet Boys, and were marketed along some bizarre oxymoronic virginal-cum-romp vein. (Any aficionado of the 90s pop scene likely remembers that Pink served somewhat as Brittney's foil in that Pink was overt in her sexuality and, thus, one of the progenitors of the 90s slutwave scene.)

Somehow over the next decade Brittney Spears emerges as one of the biggest acts in  music. While she's not as untalented as her critics suggest, there're probably several dozen American Idol contestants every year with better vocal range and certainly greater personality. (Bear in mind, her media team has essentially prevented her from speaking to the media in any form save for the perfectly rehearsed Oprahesque interview.) So why did Brittney win the life lottery? It was a combination of likely an excellent and fortuitous marketing strategy, an unparalleled 'you-want-to-bang-me-regardless-of-your-sexual-orientation' vibe that she possessed in her later teen years, and--most importantly in DBSF's mind--she got 'Hit me baby one  more time', which in addition to its sexual and violent undertones that only exacerbated reason number two, was such a hit that it demanded she would continue to receive top tracks for decades to come.

As a result of the great fortune of receiving one spectacular pop track, an individual from rural Louisianan (DBSF thinks, surely somewhere in the deep south though) with second runner-up in the high school talent show ability  now, a decade and a half later, sells out arenas months in advance regardless of any interaction/ participation with fans, new music, whatever. The definition of winning the life lottery.

DBSF was reminded of this theory when he saw that Hasheem Thabeet was rewarded for being 7'3" with a two-year contract on a potential NBA dynasty franchise. In college, because he was normally at least 6 inched taller than everyone else on the court, Thabeet would block something like 4 shots a game. NBA executives exhibited troublingly little concern over his inability to do anything else on a basketball court when he was drafted second overall in 2009. (Literally every player drafted after him that made it to the NBA has had a better career.) Three seasons later, Thabeet whose advance stats indicate that he has had such awful seasons that he actually contributed to his team losing games (a mathematically impressive feat) joins OKC and exhibits why he is this July's life lottery winner.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

NBA Draft, one week later

It's been almost week since last Thursday's NBA draft and DBSF has had time to reflect. There are several narratives worth addressing and Bill Simmons' NBA draft diary captures many of them.One thing that Simmons touches only briefly yet deserves attention is that this was a draft in which the pick where certain players were selected will likely either  prove beneficial or will impose psychological costs associated with expectations that will compromise a player's potential. First the two who were most helped:

Andre Drummond--There's a 90% chance that Drummond becomes Hasheem Thabeet and a 10% chance he turns into Tyson Chandler. One thing you don't want is his fragile 19 year old psyche to get crushed and in the process waste his physical gifts. Assuming he doesn't Eddy Curry it and remains dedicated to basketball in three or four years--right after his rookie contract, unfortunately for the Pistons--there should be ROI. With Greg Monroe, Jonas Jerebko and the addition of 7-foot Ukranian Vyacheslav Kravtsov hopefully Drummond will only have to play garbage and Wizards'/ Bobcats' minutes. If injuries force the Piston's hand on Drummond, they should tell old 6'7" Jason Maxiell to get his Rick Mahorn/ Armen Gilliam (RIP) on. Drummond might be an ideal candidate for spending a rookie year in the D-League.

Perry Jones III--If he was lottery pick there would already be two DWI's and an aggravated assault or solicitation charge. Going at the end of the first round makes it to Jones clear that his physical ability and dimensions are only valued so high. On top of that there is no better team than OKC, which has a great young leader in Durant. Because of Durant's youth there isn't the generational disconnect found in other veteran-rookie failed mentorships, like Jordan and Kwame Brown. So not only will Durant be able to give advice on personality glasses, but by his nature he'll lead by example and impart on Perry that there is no reason to celebrate a one-on-none fast-break dunk when the Thunder are up 25 in the fourth over the Kings.

Now those most adversely affected:

Dion Waiters--this is obvious and not his fault in a way. A) He didn't start on his college team, which means if you're not one of the five best on your team you might not be one of the five best in the draft, and B) unless Tristan Thompson--another reach at fourth overall from the 2011 draft--makes significant offensive strides, the fact that Waiters was the more recent lottery pick will place greater pressure on him to complement Kyrie Irving. This is a no-win for a 6'4" two-guard who averaged single digits in college.

Harrison Barnes/ Terrence Ross--This is a combo because neither play is Clay Thompson/ DeMar Derozan. Basically, Barnes and Ross are two super-hyped high school talents whose popularity waned after they faced Division 1 talent and now are expected to compete for the same position with young, promising players that have NBA experience. DBSF doesn't see Ross working out regardless of where he was drafted, but Barnes is one of those guys who would've been greatly served by a Perry Jones III oh-how-the-mighty-have-fallen drop on the draft board. If he went to Houston or some team in the mid-first round he would've had the Tom Brady-I-have-to-prove-myself fire. Instead he's joining a team that will be short on shots after Curry, Lee and Thompson get their looks. Best case scenario for Barnes is that he reinvents himself as a powerful, high-effort defender--something like a Thaddeus Young with a jump shot.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Golden Corral: Muchisimo Cotton Candy Por Favor

So as to offset today's Supreme Court ruling, which upheld the Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare, Golden Corral has announced that it will be providing unlimited access to chocolate waterfalls* and home-spun cotton candy on its all-you-can-eat menu. The all-you-can-eat menu, of course, also includes favorite buffet fare, like clam chowder, bone-in catfish, lobster sauce, shrimp scampi, every derivation of thoroughly cooked and fried beef and/ or pork, and 88 desert options in addition to the chocolate fountain and cotton candy.


In other words, the potential billions of dollars in savings that the federal government and already insured Americans could have saved will be neutralized by that contingent of our populace that lives in the same census track as most major interstate exits in the southeastern United States. Fortunately, they'll likely use the same rational that leads one to select a restaurant based on its willingness/ negligence to enable you, the patron, to consume mass quantities of liquefied then aerated sugar, to select a Congressional representative, whom will inevitably set forth a political agenda predicated on enabling his constituents to continue to inhale glucose manipulated into whatever it's least healthful form is for the body in super-human quantities. Checkmate. 

*Is 'access' the right word? It is when talking about water-based waterfalls. 


Monday, June 25, 2012

Trevor Ariza's LeBron Moment

Last week's series-clinching Game 5 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder granted LeBron James some respite from critics challenging his arrogance (critic's description)/ optimism (DBSF's descrption) when after signing with the Heat he announced that the team would win not one NBA Finals, not two, not three, not . . . etc but a touchdown and extra point or maybe even two point conversion number of NBA championships. What was missed in all the LeBron-directed vitriol was that he was at a pep rally where it is basically standard protocol for a new acquisition to promote a the-sky's-the-limit type of optimism. 


This week Trevor Ariza exhibited even greater irrational exuberance when after discovering he would be playing with John Wall in Washington. Ariza announced that "Watching this young team and the talent they already have here and trying to help them grow. I definitely think this can be a playoff team."  Getting traded from New Orleans Hornets to the Washington Wizards is like getting released on parole because your old prison was getting too overcrowded--it's a step-up but by no means any reason to draw attention to the situation. How LeBron gets harangued for predicting championships and going 1-1 in Finals in his first two years but Trevor Ariza thinks a team that at one point last year wasn't really much more than a mid-major barnstorming all-star crew can improve from fantastically futile to Milwaukee Bucksish is shocking.