Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Knicks: Lin?

Carmelo thinks the contract the Rockets offered Lin is ridiculous. Despite Lin being DBSF's third favorite NBA player after the i) Wizards' roster and ii) Bron Bron, he has to agree. But last February when Lin emerged as the Knicks' PG Madison Square Garden stock surged to record highs. Was this causation or correlation? Should the Knicks re-sign Lin?

This might sound absurd but even with Felton and Kidd, Lin is the Knicks best PG. Admittedly there is some bias in DBSF's estimation but last season Lin's PER was 19.9, Felton's was 13.4, and Kidd's was 13.1. (Kidd hasn't been above 15, the league average, in three seasons.) Kidd's age obviously qualifies him in this comparison as at his prime he was far superior to the other two, and he's really being brought on to back-up and to mentor the younger PGs, like Lin (potentially) or Iman Shumpert.

Here's the thing. The Knicks could add Dwight Howard and they still wouldn't make it out of the Eastern Finals (save a LeBron injury, but it is never good basketball-business to plan free agency and a season around arguably the greatest specimen of the male human body becoming in some way physically deficient). So in deciding to sign Lina a rational team should weigh the business side of the equation more so than the let's-win-championships' side.

So here's DBSF's relatively simple calculus for valuing Raymond Felton vs. Jeremy Lin with respect to ROI: How many New York Knicks hats will be purchased in 2012 if the team signs Felton or Lin?

Felton: 1 mom + 1 dad + 2 sisters + 1 brother + 4 cousins + 1 wife + 1 auto mechanic + 4 nephews + 2 neighbors = 17 Knicks hats.

Lin: 1 mom + 1 dad + 2 brothers + 1 GF + 3 Church Friends + 8 Harvard Alumns + 1.3 billion Chinese = 1,300,000,016 Knicks hats.

Maybe Lin?

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