Thursday, December 27, 2012

Grounds for Contraction?

The Wizards are in the midst of an 8 game losing streak. The organization started the season with a 12 game losing streak and has somehow compiled two losing streaks equaling 20 losses in just their first 24 games. What's more concerning is that the 7-win Charlotte Bobcats currently hold/ are floundering in the longest losing streak at 16 games. Injuries, poor drafting and marquee free agents reluctance to sign with perennial under-achievers contribute every season to disparity in the NBA.

But what teams, like the Wizards and Bobcats, really illustrate is that there are not 150 (30 teams x 5 starters) NBA-quality basketball players. (Or more likely there probably are around 150 and maybe slightly more but many players that would thrive on the Wizards or Bobcats prefer a bench role on more talented and promising teams.) On their current rosters, the Wizards have 4 former NBDL players and the Bobcats have 3 that contribute significant minutes. While other teams rely on DL alumni there seems to be an indirect correlation between NBDL-alumni minutes played and winning percentage.

No matter what the number of teams there will always be cellar-dwellers however the Bobcats and Wizards present evidence that there is some combination of an inadequate supply of healthy, NBA-quality basketball players and/ or demand of such players to join such struggling organizations.


Thursday, December 20, 2012

NFL Playoff Seeding Projections

After Monday night's loss the Jets are no longer eligible for the playoffs, which is of note only because for the first time in history an NFL team replaced its starting QB with its third stringer rather than its second--in this case Tim Tebow, whom next year will likely enhance the sanctity of the Arena Football League at the cost of precipitously reducing league average completion percentage. Other prognostications:

AFC
1. Houston Texans: Nope. Don't buy it. See December 10, 2012 and November 18, 2012. If you have to come back at home to beat the Jaguars you deserve to lose/ lack legitimacy. If the Texans play the Ravens and the Ravens defense is moderately healthy they'll lose at home in the divisional game.

2. Denver Broncos: Broncos or the Patriots will most likely represent the AFC in the Superbowl. Assuming this seeding plays out the divisional series between the Patriots and Broncos will represent the AFC Championship. If Manning can turn the ball over 1 or fewer times then the Broncos should win and then beat the Texans in Houston by about 6.

3. New England Patriots: Probably the best team in the NFL as long as Peyton Manning isn't on the other sideline. Sure they recently lost to the 49ers but Belichick probably orchestrated the loss because he recognized the danger of going into the playoffs on a potentially 10 win playoff streak. Superbowl winners aren't long distance runners; they're sprinters that catch their stride at the right time.

4. Baltimore Raves: Should be a contender but they drafted a QB out of the University of Delaware, who no matter how many impressive 4-game streaks he gives you is constrained by the same intrinsic qualities that led to Delaware being the best college that recruited him after he transferred from the University of Pittsburgh.

5 (WC). Indianapolis Colts: Luck's foray into the playoffs. There will be much talk of it being a precursor of great post-season things to come. If the Ravens' defense remains depleted the Colts may pull out a win, if, however, they are healthy Luck will probably throw for 4 pics and a lot of yards and maybe a score late thus mitigating a blow-out.

6 (WC). Cincinnati Bengals: Any year now the Bengals will return to form. Dalton is closing the season out strong (11 TDs and 3 pics in last 6 games) but if the Bengals have to go into Foxboro then the likelihood for success approaches that of the Dave Shula days.

NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons: See note on Texans but replace dates with November 25 and December 9. They'll most likely make it to the conference championship simply because they'll face either a rookie QB or Jay Cutler on the road, which isn't saying much of a difference.

2. Green Bay Packers: If only the Playoffs consisted of your divisional opponents. That's not the case and what are left are four teams currently scheduled to make the playoffs that contributed to the Packers' four losses.

3. San Francisco 49ers: You cannot tie and lose/ almost tie again the St. Louis Rams and expect good things to happen when the NFL filters out its waste and all that remains are 10 or so competitive to good teams. Colin Kapernick hasn't had a bad game yet and one is due. Presumably it will occur in the playoffs and end the 49ers season.

4. Washington Redskins: It would only be fitting that RG3 lead the Skins to their second playoff win since the  terrorist attacks on 9-11. As long as the Skins avoid a divisional opponent and the 49ers in the playoffs they will represent the NFC in the Superbowl.

5 (WC). Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler cannot, under any circumstance, give his team 4 good games, which is necessary to win a Superbowl out of the Wildcard. Three is possible, two a near certainty but his addiction to gun-slinging 25 yards down the field into triple coverage prohibits the possibility of any more consecutive wins.

6 (WC). NY Giants: Based on prior seasons, the Giants would be situated perfectly for a Superbowl win at the final Wild Card spot but their recent inconsistency is concerning. If the Giants thrash the Ravens there will be grounds for optimism. However Eli has about reached his average interception total for the season but is around 10 off his TD total.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

The $40M Third Baseperson

Perpetually hating the Yankees is allowed and never considered needlessly resentful because in the one major sports' league without a salary cap, the Yanks have come to epitomize the absolute depravity and worst of free agency. They're basically the Sodom and Gomorrah of free agency. If those "pro-family" organizations that for all the troubles and needs this world faces have somehow decided to focus all of their attention on preventing two people of the same sex from ever being able to share a civil union dedicated a fraction of their time to eliminating the ills of profligate free agency the Yankees would represent the tree in the hyperbole of "well if we let two men marry, who's to say some man won't wanna marry his dog or a tree".

(Surprisingly simple solution to this issue--write legislation so only "two human beings" can marry. Literally that problem is now void. Aside #2: Ironically it seems the "pro-family" crowd is rather anti-anything government so then what does it matter that some viciously flagrant violation of the Constitution, i.e., a local municipality, provides a civil service? Isn't any form or iteration government--that, of course doesn't directly benefit pro-familiers--in itself void?) 

So it comes as great joy to many sports fans that the Yankees are scheduled this year to pay $28M to AROD, who not only only is a mediocre third baseperson when he does play but now will collect Eritrea's GDP while sitting on the bench and recovering from a hip injury. In his place they've signed Kevin Youkilis, who makes it all the more sweeter as he starred for years with the Yankees' arch-rivals the Boston Red Sox, for $12M, which means the organization will be paying at least $40M for a 33 year old third baseperson (Youkilis) that batted a career low .235 last year. Should Youkilis get injured the team will probably have to fork out more money for a premier name, like Placido Polanco or Scott Rolen (who if it was the year the Yankees originally signed AROD would be a great alternative). Basically, the Yankees are spending in one year on a declining third baseperson an amount that totals more than two entire MLB rosters in 2010 and one roster in 2011, which is entertaining to all non-Yankee fans as well as that large contingent of Yankees' fans that only begins cheering for them once they make the ALCS. 

Thursday, December 6, 2012

"Tonight was an away game, and we won. We won on the road at home. How crazy is that?" -- MW

The Wizards beat the Heat in a game LeBron went fora triple-double, Bosh for a double-double, Allen and Miller combined for 6 threes, and LeBron, Bosh and DWade all scored over 20 points. A Sportscenter intern needs to crunch some numbers and figure out the last time those three went for twenty, Bron Bron dropped a triple-double and they lost. Did the Wizards win because RG3 sat court-side? Couldn't have hurt considering it was likely the first time that season that Wizards' fans knew the name of one of Washington's athletes.

Martell Webster, who likely takes that 'every game is the start of a new season, we have no record' philosophy to the degree that he suffers from cognitive lapses concerning the Wizards' winning percentage, lamented "I mean, did you guys not hear the announcements? It’s like, Chris Singleton, yay. They call LeBron’s name, and it’s like, jeez. Tonight was an away game, and we won. We won on the road at home. How crazy is that?"  That's right Martell. People aren't going to pay upwards of $100 (or 300X that for a real team) to watch a D-League runner-up. Fans are paying to see LeBron & co and will cheer accordingly

Explanations for the win are manifold. In addition to RG3's presence, analysts point to the facts that the team got quality minutes for just the fifth time this season from their best player, Nene, that the Heat overlooked the one-win Wizards, and that the team had been in many close games before so it was only a matter of time until one of those games went the Wizards' way. Others have pointed to a season high  in assists for the team, which bodes well for any basketball team but especially the Wizards because it means that Jordan Crawford didn't dribble the ball four times past half-court and hoist at the first smell of an open shot and instead passed to high percentage scorers, like Nene and Seraphin.

Head coach Randy Wittman provided the classix us-versus-the-world explanations: "I told the guys, the only people that really think you have a chance tonight is us here right in this room. [The media] don't believe, the outside didn't believe, and I said we need to have a statement game. What better opportunity to come and play in front of the fans that we knew were going to be here and beat this team. They took it to heart."

Basketball is interesting and differs from other major sports in that it doesn't have a farm system. (Yes, there is the D-League but that's where hopelessly over-drafted picks go to whither while GMs pray some other acquisition can save their job or the likes of Carmelo Anthony's little brother and his friends get to play organized basketball while enhancing their occupational stature for nightclubbing ) Baseball and hockey have their minor leagues and football has the SEC and the fact that most players are in college (including red-shirting) for at least a full four years.

In basketball perennially under-performing teams almost never get premium quality free agents (and have to overpay for mediocre ones), which means they have to build through the draft. The Wizards have been building for half a decade with no sign of an end to construction in sight. Because of the absence of a legitimate farm league, the Wizards regularly field players, like Bradely Beal and Jan Vesely, whom while one day could potentially succeed, in the present have no reason to be on an NBA basketball court. So how did the Wizards win?

As in all professional sports grossly out-matched teams occasionally win when fans make such a mockery of their relative futility in comparison to an opponent that  players begin to question their own dignity and self-respect. (The media aggrandizes such spectacle as when an hour prior to the game Sportscenter ran multiple segments about the stark difference between the teams while analysts mockingly prognosticated blow-out scores.) Despite the fact that three-quarters of the Wizards wouldn't make the Heat's roster all were AAU, high school and Division 1 superstars so, save Michael Olowokandi or Adam Morrison, every NBAer has exceptional potential and on the right night can compete with any level of talent. Fortunately for the Wizards that right night came against the Heat and was aided by a sports meme arising in reaction to the absurdity of the match-up in the first place.