Saturday, September 28, 2013

2013 NFL Predictions -- Follow-up

The NFL is really four four-game seasons--the Jets through week 3 will not be the Jets of weeks 14-17. Still three weeks offers enough of a sample size to reassess predictions.

NFC East: Playing out exactly as expected. The Giants and Skins are better teams than they're records suggest. Skins will probably be a formidable opponent weeks 10-17 (their defense can literally only get better). As long as Tony Romo is their QB, the Cowboys will peak and valley to a 7-9 win season. The only uncertainty is the Eagles. My admittedly biased support for Michael Vick usually leads me to think that any offense he leads is better than it is. That being said, I'm keeping all of the NFC East projections in place.

NFC West: Everything looks okay here except the Rams--really Sam Bradford--are worse than expected and the Seahawks are imitating a dominant team. The Rams' defense should ensure them 6 wins and galactic karma will guarantee that Pete Carroll win no more than 10 games in a season. (The guy has his own website for crap's sake.) The Seahawks could have a 12 win year but the NFL makes teams play half their games on the road.

NFC North: The projections are spot on. Jay Cutler is Jay Cutler. He will turn the ball over so the Bears regress to their 8 win mean. Aaron Rodgers is the closest thing to Peyton Manning outside of Peyton Manning. He could play for the Raiders and they would win 10 games.

NFC South: The Bucs are worse than anyone could have predicted. Schiano probably won't make it through the season and they've just named a starting QB, who was a mediocre ACC QB, which as fortune would have it has a directly inverse relationship with success. Otherwise, all predictions hold.

AFC East: The Jets are the worst 2-1 football team in the history of the NFL--things must fall apart. The center cannot hold. The Dolphins will be the opposite of the Skins. They'll win one or two of their final 8 games--just enough to spend another two seasons believing Ryan Tannehill is the answer.

AFC West: Peyton Manning's first half against the Raiders on Monday night raised serious questions about parity and competition in the NFL. Through three games he has effectively established himself as the NFL's LeBron James--it doesn't matter who you surround him with, he is so much better than every other player in the league that he actually surpasses opponent's collective talent. Unlike James, Peyton cannot sustain it for an entire season and the Broncos will still lose 5 games. Chiefs are much better (primarily defensively) that I anticipated and will probably win 9 games. Raiders are worse than expected but their futility is nothing in the face of the Jags or Jets so they'll steal a few wins.

AFC North: The season is looking to play out exactly as predicted. If Ravens were a stock I would short them and short them big. Tied with the NFC East for the worst division in the NFL.

AFC South: Jacksonville can lose 16 games. Their big chance to win comes in two weeks when they play the Rams. Whoever manages to turn the ball over less wins. While that is probably my least favorite 'NFL guru' axiom, it's meant more in terms of 'these teams offense so bad, so incapable of scoring that whichever one doesn't give the opposing offense possession with fewer than 30 yards to score will win'. Andrew Luck is the next Peyton Manning. With the current, gradual deterioration of rules that allow defenders to impede receivers in any way Luck will probably hold every major individual passing record in twelve years.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

2013 NFL Predictions

While primarily dedicated to the NBA, the NFL's singular popularity merits it attention. As such, the following reflect the annual DBSF 2013 NFL prediction. Per our analytic zeitgeist each record is based on a range of factors that include: organization's 2011 and 2012 performance, starting QB's 2012 QBR, tenure of defensive coordinator, opponents' 2012 away record, organization's 2010-2012 home record, and the list goes on. But then I remembered that a few years ago the NFL learned from marketing and focus group data that fans like two things about the NFL: 1) fantasy football and 2) prolific passing offenses. As a result, Goodell et al made defensive backs more a formality than an actual position and linebackers and D-linemen are left with an area smaller than Tim McClelland strike zone to hit offensive opponents. Ergo, the 2013 DBSF NFL season predictions are essentially a guestimate on who I think are the best and most likely protected QBs.

NFC East: Vick has the breakout year he's been on the verge of since his return to the Eagles. The Redskins regress after last year's performance as there is no way to keep a quarterback healthy in their scheme. Giants and Cowboys beat some real good teams (e.g., Broncos) and lose to some real poor teams (i.e., Chiefs).
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
NY Giants (9-7)
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
Washington Redskins (6-10)

NFC West: Despite being a passing league, superior defense--especially in terms of pass rush--can win the playoffs. 49ers defense secures them the Superbowl. With the exception of Russell Wilson, who will have a year very similar to his rookie season, the rest of the division should only play in the 4pm non-nationally televised games.
San Fran 49ers (10-6)**
Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
St. Louis Rams (7-9)
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

NFC North: Packers are for real but won't have enough defense to survive the playoffs. Lions will outperform and potentially even win a wild card game. Jay Cutler will guarantee the Bears 8 wins and will guarantee the Bears 8 losses.
Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Detroit Lions (9-7)
Chicago Bears (8-8)
Minnesota Vikings (6-10)

NFC South: Brees and the Saints don't have the explosiveness to make the NFC South a force anymore. The Falcons will Falcons it in the playoffs so it doesn't matter if they win all 16 games or lose all 16--they're not going past the NFC Championship. The real story is Cam Newton, who may be the most valuable player to his team in the NFL. Absent Newton the Panthers are a 2 or 3 win team.
Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
New Orleans Saints (10-6)
Carolina Panthers (8-8)
Tampa Bay Bucs (7-9)

AFC East: Pats by default. Jets will implode. Rex will get fired, which will also signal a wane in the demand for the boisterous, "real locker room guy"/ former five year president of his frat in college coach who likely delegates all technical coaching responsibilities but gives seriously impassioned pre-game pep talks focusing on nebulous topics like "wanting it", "believing" and any number of war-time metaphors for making gradual progress while maintaining cohesiveness.
NE Pats (12-4)
Miami Dolphins (6-10)
Buffalo Bills (4-12)
NY Jets (2-14)

AFC West: If there was a case for contraction in the NFL it would be the AFC West this decade. Save Denver, the other three usually only win because they get to play each other and because the probability of ties in the NFL is relatively low. Every year from the moment the season ends, the Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders all seem to follow a pattern where each off-season move takes them one-step closer to being a perennial 5-11 team.
Denver Broncos (11-5)*
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
KC Chiefs (5-11)
Oakland Raiders (3-13)

AFC North: The Browns explode to 8-8, which for the Browns justifies "explode". The Denver game showed two things about the Ravens: For the first time in a decade they are not only not a great defensive team but a poor one, and if you make Joe Flacco throw and you take Ray Rice out of the equation basically you have Delaware's version of Carson Palmer.
Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
Cleveland Browns (8-8)
Baltimore Ravens (7-9)

AFC South: The beginning of the Andrew Luck era. Whether or not Luck goes on to win Superbowl(s) depends upon personnel moves on the defense, but he will probably be good enough to guarantee 10 wins a season for the next decade. Texans begin their decline--they had three years to take a conference championship and Superbowl and they let it slide by. The issue after 'more passing offense' that participants identified in focus groups as the most important entertainment aspect of the NFL was 'less Jacksonville Jaguars'.
Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Houston Texans (9-7)
Tennessee Titans (5-11)
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)

** Superbowl Champ
* Other Conference Champ