Tuesday, October 5, 2010

The Statistical Improbability of the Kansas City Chiefs

As of zero-hundred hours Eastern Standard Time today the Kansas City Chiefs, the first cousin's of the Los Angeles Clippers and soon to be spouse of the Pittsburgh Pirates, are the only undefeated team in the NFL. This comes as a surprise to most football fans considering last week a rumor leaked that despite the fact the average American child can name at least 3 football players on each NFL team, the average Kansas City Chief can't name 5 other Kansas City Chiefs.

(Brodie Croyle lost to Jamaal Charles for knowing the most names on the team with 8. Brodie was able to name most punters, and the two defensive backs he threw too most often at practice, but when the judges pressed Brodie on naming the 8th player by his full name, Brodie contended that "me" sufficed. Things deteriorated, existentially speaking, as the lead judge and Brodie went back-and-forth for 15 minutes challenging each other over the existence and non-existence of "me"/ "Brodie Croyle".)

As such, DBSF fancied that it was likely the case that not too many of the odds-makers called the Chiefs as the only undefeated NFL team in October. So, DBSF went to the Vegas archives and discovered that only three NFL bets received a lower probability than the Chiefs being undefeated this late. (Note: for those interested in the arithmetic, the scientific notation of the negative exponent was so great that they actually had to have have negative exponent to the billionth on top of negative exponent to the billionth, on top of negat . . well you get it.)

3) In one quarter, Bristol Palin throws for 3 TDs, runs for 100+ yards, and has no fumbles.
2) Buffalo Bills Punter Brian Moorman runs for 250+ yards on six consecutive fake punts.
1) Carolina Panthers kneel the ball every single play, and they still have more yards than the prior week's non-snap-and-knee game.