Wednesday, November 27, 2013

More Nerding Out to Advanced NBA Team Stats

Both charts below show team winning % as of last night and all categories are per game (data pulled from In both cases bigger circles indicate a greater winning percentage this season. The top chart compares turnovers per 100 possessions with assists per 100 possessions. We would expect all of the larger circles to be at the bottom right of the chart indicating that winning teams have a high average of assists per 100 possessions and a lower average of turnovers per 100 possessions. Heat, Clippers and Spurs are in that general direction and the Jazz have a high turnover ratio and low assist ratio and, thus, are in the top left, which all make sense. Interestingly, lower-tier teams like the Knicks and Jazz have an about average assist ratio and very low turnover ratio. Therefore, limiting turnovers doesn't seem to always correlate with a high winning percentage.

The second chart compares the percentage of possible offensive rebounds that a team gets with the team's possessions per 48 minutes of play. It seems reasonable that bigger circles would be toward the top right of the chart as a higher offensive rebounding percentage and more possessions per 48 minutes would correlate with winning. There doesn't seem to be any clear relationship. The anomalous Spurs, Heat and Hawks all have especially low offensive rebounding percentage but are also above average teams, which counters the idea that better offensive rebounding teams win more games. Perhaps this reflects that better teams (in terms of winning percentage) do not crash the offensive boards to ensure that enough players are back on defense to prevent fast breaks and easy baskets.

No comments:

Post a Comment