Monday, February 2, 2015

Best & worst 5 man rotations: 2007/08 to 2014/15

After looking at top two man rotations, I was interested in understanding the best and worst five man rotations in the NBA. NBA stats collects rotational data (see an example here) going back to the 2007/08 season. From NBA stats, I pulled data on all five man rotations that played at least 100 minutes in a season together. For the strike shortened 2011-12 season and the current on-going 2014-15 season I prorated the number of minutes necessary to qualify based on a the games played in that season (so it was 80 minutes for 2011-12 and 56 minutes for 2014-15 when this data was pulled on January 30, 2015).

This left me with a population of 1,239 rotations over the last 8 seasons. I chose to measure the efficacy of a rotation based on offensive, defensive and net rating ( provides excellent detail on these ratings in its glossary). Below I created a histogram offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating to show how these 1,239 rotations performed on each.

The fact that each histogram looks like a bell where most rotations were clustered around a central score with smaller groups gradually declining from each side shows that each rating is relatively normal distributed. Below I calculated the mean, standard deviation (sd) and the mean +/- three sd. I calculated the +/- 3 sd to find those rotations that were exceptionally anomalous. Conventionally, any value that falls outside of 3 sd is considered a significant outlier, or in the context of this data an exceptionally efficient/ deficient rotation.

Offensive ratingDefensive ratingNet rating
SD +3129.98125.5336.353
SD -381.73280.414-30.59

Below are the rotations that fell outside three sd (those outside four sd are highlighted in yellow) for offensive, defensive and net rating over the last 8 seasons. With respect to offensive rating this season we are witnessing both one of the best rotations in recent NBA history on the Raptors an exceptionally deficient rotation on the Pacers. In terms of defensive rating, a current Nuggets' rotation is outside four sd thus indicating that they are a historically poor defense. The best defensive rotations over the last 8 seasons came from the 11-12 Bulls and the 09-10 Thunder.

Finally, when looking at net rating, which simply takes into account offensive and defensive rating) two of the three rotations outside three sd are from this season. The Hawks have a rotation that is the best in the last 8 seasons and the Pacers have the worst with an 08-09 Kings' rotation not far behind. The 14-15 Pacers' historically low net rating is driven by their historically anemic offensive output.

Rotations with ratings falling 3 s.d. above or below the rating mean
**yellow highlighted cells reflect ratings that are 4 s.d. outside of mean
Offensive rating above (129.98)
Hansbrough,Tyler - Patterson,Patrick - Ross,Terrence - Vasquez,Greivis - Williams,Lou (14-15)135.1
Offensive rating below (81.732)
Hibbert,Roy - Hill,Solomon - Miles,CJ - Scola,Luis - Sloan,Donald (14-15)71.5
Davis,Glen - Duhon,Chris - Howard,Dwight - Redick,JJ - Richardson,Quentin (11-12)79.8
Carter-Williams,Michael - Mbah a Moute,Luc - Noel,Nerlens - Sims,Henry - Thompson,Hollis (14-15)80
Defensive rating above (125.53)
Brewer,Corey - Foye,Randy - Gomes,Ryan - Jaric,Marko - Jefferson,Al (07-08)126.5
Afflalo,Arron - Chandler,Wilson - Faried,Kenneth - Hickson,JJ - Lawson,Ty (14-15)134.2
Defensive rating below (80.414)
Asik,Omer - Deng,Luol - Gibson,Taj - Korver,Kyle - Lucas,John (11-12)77.5
Collison,Nick - Durant,Kevin - Harden,James - Ibaka,Serge - Maynor,Eric (09-10)79.3
Net rating above (36.353)
Horford,Al - Korver,Kyle - Schroder,Dennis - Scott,Mike - Sefolosha,Thabo (14-15)42
Net rating below (-30.59)
Hibbert,Roy - Hill,Solomon - Miles,CJ - Scola,Luis - Sloan,Donald (14-15)-38.6
Hawes,Spencer - Martin,Kevin - Salmons,John - Thompson,Jason - Udrih,Beno (08-09)-33.1

No comments:

Post a Comment