Thursday, August 22, 2013

Projecting the Benefit of New Free Agents

I was interested in projecting the effect free agents might have on their team in the 2013/14 season so I compiled a list of signed free agents and some advanced stats. I began with the 111 free agents that basketball-reference.com lists as having signed with a team as of August 22. Next I removed all 51 players that exercised a player option or resigned with the team they played with in the 2012-13 season. (This latter group included players, like Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers, Manu Ginobili and Boris Diaw.)

From the remaining group of 60 free agents that signed with new teams for the 2013/14 NBA season I collected their player efficiency ratings (PER) and win shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) to estimate the total effect new free agent acquisition(s) would have on their team. I averaged PER and WS/48 to see what team might expect the greatest boost from new free agents. (The table below lists for each team the number of new free agents, their 2012/13 average PER, and 2012/13 average WS/48. It is sorted by 2012/13 average PER.)

The teams at the top benefit from signing a single higher-tier free agent, like Al Jefferson (Charlotte) or Carl Landry (Sacramento). Atlanta's three players are Elton Brand, DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap, whose 19.8 PER and 0.154 WS/ 48 upwardly skew the mean. The bottom reflects that Boston signed journeyman and PG county high school native Keith Bogans and that Toronto added Tyler Hansborough and Quentin Richardson, whose 0.7 PER and -0.181 WS/48 ranks him as second to last in both categories (only Indiana's Donald Sloan at  -3.3 PER and -0.212 WS/48 was worse.)

Team # of
Players
2012/13
Avg WS/48
2012/13
Avg PER
CHA 1 0.143 20.9
SAC 1 0.159 17.5
ATL 3 0.132 16.8
DAL 4 0.116 16.7
GSW 4 0.098 16.5
DET 2 0.111 16.4
DEN 3 0.119 16.3
BRK 2 0.122 16.1
HOU 3 0.078 15.2
CLE 3 0.100 14.0
CHI 1 0.109 13.6
LAC 3 0.066 13.5
MIL 3 0.095 13.4
MIN 3 0.108 13.4
NOP 3 0.067 13.2
LAL 4 0.045 13.0
NYK 1 0.086 12.5
SAS 2 0.103 12.5
POR 2 0.067 11.9
ORL 1 0.047 11.3
UTA 4 0.074 10.7
WAS 1 0.016 10.6
IND 3 0.008 9.1
TOR 2 (0.014) 8.0
BOS 1 0.047 6.7
Grand Total 60 0.084 13.7

1 comment:

  1. Dang I was hoping this was a baseball article. Does Boris Diaw grow an inch every year?

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