Sunday, February 16, 2014

Net & Defensive Team Rating

This chart helps explain why the Pacers are so dominant--they strap. I collected team data on Feb 13 from NBA Stats on offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions), defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions), and net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating). I measured offensive rating with the size of the circle next to the team (larger circles equate to greater relative offensive efficiency), defensive rating on the horizontal axis, and net rating on the vertical axis.

With respect to net rating, a team wants to be above the horizontal bar because that signals they score more points than they allow per 100 possessions . With respect to defensive rating, the further left the team falls on the chart, the better as that signifies that the team allows fewer points per 100 possessions. As the chart shows, only four teams--Pacers, Thunder, Warriors and Bulls--allow fewer than 100 points per 100 possessions. The Pacers, however, are anomalous--and exceptional--in just how few points they allow per 100 possessions (93.6). To give some scope of this defensive efficacy, the Jazz, who have the worst defensive rating, allow 107.3 points per 100 possessions.


Saturday, February 8, 2014

The best teams don't need second chances

Two things you would think successful NBA teams do well is score second chance points and have a high effective field goal percentage (a measure that takes into account the value of three point shots). I took team data from NBA Stats as of February 7th's games and plotted second chance points (vertical axis) against effective FG % (horizontal axis), and captured each team's winning percentage based on the size of the red circle (the bigger the circle equals the greater the win % for each team). The chart presents some evidence that the best teams don't really rely on second chances but are very effective shooters (in terms of eFG%). The exception being the Portland Trailblazers, who benefit from LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez, who average the 9th and 15th, respectively, most second change points per game this season. Of course, bad teams, like the Bucks and Celtics, do both poorly.