Projecting the Benefit of New Free Agents

I was interested in projecting the effect free agents might have on their team in the 2013/14 season so I compiled a list of signed free agents and some advanced stats. I began with the 111 free agents that basketball-reference.com lists as having signed with a team as of August 22. Next I removed all 51 players that exercised a player option or resigned with the team they played with in the 2012-13 season. (This latter group included players, like Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers, Manu Ginobili and Boris Diaw.)

From the remaining group of 60 free agents that signed with new teams for the 2013/14 NBA season I collected their player efficiency ratings (PER) and win shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) to estimate the total effect new free agent acquisition(s) would have on their team. I averaged PER and WS/48 to see what team might expect the greatest boost from new free agents. (The table below lists for each team the number of new free agents, their 2012/13 average PER, and 2012/13 average WS/48. It is sorted by 2012/13 average PER.)

The teams at the top benefit from signing a single higher-tier free agent, like Al Jefferson (Charlotte) or Carl Landry (Sacramento). Atlanta's three players are Elton Brand, DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap, whose 19.8 PER and 0.154 WS/ 48 upwardly skew the mean. The bottom reflects that Boston signed journeyman and PG county high school native Keith Bogans and that Toronto added Tyler Hansborough and Quentin Richardson, whose 0.7 PER and -0.181 WS/48 ranks him as second to last in both categories (only Indiana's Donald Sloan at  -3.3 PER and -0.212 WS/48 was worse.)

Team	# of Players	2012/13 Avg WS/48	2012/13 Avg PER
CHA	1	0.143	20.9
SAC	1	0.159	17.5
ATL	3	0.132	16.8
DAL	4	0.116	16.7
GSW	4	0.098	16.5
DET	2	0.111	16.4
DEN	3	0.119	16.3
BRK	2	0.122	16.1
HOU	3	0.078	15.2
CLE	3	0.100	14.0
CHI	1	0.109	13.6
LAC	3	0.066	13.5
MIL	3	0.095	13.4
MIN	3	0.108	13.4
NOP	3	0.067	13.2
LAL	4	0.045	13.0
NYK	1	0.086	12.5
SAS	2	0.103	12.5
POR	2	0.067	11.9
ORL	1	0.047	11.3
UTA	4	0.074	10.7
WAS	1	0.016	10.6
IND	3	0.008	9.1
TOR	2	(0.014)	8.0
BOS	1	0.047	6.7
Grand Total	60	0.084	13.7

NBA Free Agents: PER and Salary

According to basketball-reference.com there are 60 unrestricted free agents (UFA) in the NBA that played during the 2012/13 season and remain unsigned. I was interested in understanding the most cost-effective UFA so I collected data on two categories for each of the 60 players: their 2013-14 salary or salary cap hit, and their 2012-13 PER--a standardized per-minute measure of offensive and defensive performance where 15 represents the average performance for a given season.

I divided each player's 2013-14 salary or salary cap hit by PER to capture a salary cost per PER point. Basically, teams would want to look at UFAs with the lowest salary dollar per PER point because they would be paying less for better performance (at least based on 2012-13 and assuming a player's salary remains at the reported level).

Based on this approach the 5 most cost-effective available UFAs are Brandan Wright, Malcolm Thomas, Earl Barron, Antawn Jamison and Chris Wilcox--all of whom had above a 15 PER (Cole Aldrich is the only other player on the list with a PER above 15). The five least cost-effective available UFAs were Hedo Turkoglu, Daniel Gibson, Tyrus Thomas, Joel Pryzbilla and Drew Gooden. The chart below ranks the players based on 2013-14 salary per PER point starting with Brandon Wright.

Player	13/ 14 Salary or Cap Hit	12/13 PER	13/14 Salary/ PER
Brandan Wright	$884,293	21	$42,109.19
Malcolm Thomas	$884,293	16.7	$52,951.68
Earl Barron	$884,293	15.4	$57,421.62
Antawn Jamison	$884,293	15.3	$57,796.93
Chris Wilcox	$884,293	15.3	$57,796.93
Mo Williams	$884,293	14.4	$61,409.24
Kenyon Martin	$884,293	13.9	$63,618.20
Leandro Barbosa	$884,293	13.5	$65,503.19
Alan Anderson	$884,293	12.6	$70,181.98
Damien Wilkins	$884,293	12.5	$70,743.44
A.J. Price	$884,293	12.4	$71,313.95
Louis Amundson	$893,500	11.7	$76,367.52
Keyon Dooling	$884,293	11.2	$78,954.73
Jamaal Tinsley	$884,293	10.6	$83,423.87
Juwan Howard	$884,293	9.9	$89,322.53
Cartier Martin	$884,293	9.7	$91,164.23
Mike James	$884,293	9.5	$93,083.47
Richard Hamilton	$1,000,000	10.6	$94,339.62
Marquis Daniels	$884,293	9.2	$96,118.80
James White	$884,293	9.1	$97,175.05
Ronnie Brewer	$884,293	9.1	$97,175.05
Lance Thomas	$1,005,000	10.1	$99,504.95
Jerry Stackhouse	$884,293	8.5	$104,034.47
Tracy McGrady	$884,293	8.5	$104,034.47
Anthony Tolliver	$884,293	8.4	$105,272.98
Royal Ivey	$884,293	8.1	$109,171.98
Sam Young	$884,293	7.5	$117,905.73
Derek Fisher	$884,293	7	$126,327.57
DeJuan Blair	$2,002,600	14.6	$137,164.38
Devin Harris	$2,003,339	14.6	$137,215.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	$884,293	6.3	$140,363.97
Mickael Pietrus	$884,293	6	$147,382.17
Dahntay Jones	$884,293	5.4	$163,757.96
Sebastian Telfair	$2,037,750	10.7	$190,443.93
DaJuan Summers	$884,293	4.3	$205,649.53
Terrence Williams	$2,678,640	12.3	$217,775.61
Daequan Cook	$884,293	4	$221,073.25
Jannero Pargo	$3,340,920	14.1	$236,944.68
Cole Aldrich	$3,857,040	15.7	$245,671.34
Nolan Smith	$1,793,520	7.1	$252,608.45
Johan Petro	$2,897,976	11	$263,452.36
Jason Collins	$884,293	2.9	$304,928.62
Elliot Williams	$4,469,548	12	$372,462.33
D.J. Augustin	$4,200,000	11	$381,818.18
Luke Walton	$4,320,000	11.3	$382,300.88
Mike Miller	$6,200,000	13.5	$459,259.26
Luke Babbitt	$4,508,504	9.4	$479,628.09
Marcus Camby	$4,383,773	8.6	$509,741.05
Lamar Odom	$5,607,240	10.9	$514,425.69
Roger Mason	$5,568,333	10	$556,833.30
Linas Kleiza	$4,600,000	8.2	$560,975.61
Corey Maggette	$4,500,000	7.9	$569,620.25
Beno Udrih	$11,058,300	14.9	$742,167.79
DeSagana Diop	$5,016,960	6.6	$760,145.45
Xavier Henry	$6,344,164	7.6	$834,758.42
Drew Gooden	$6,687,400	7.7	$868,493.51
Joel Przybilla	$2,897,976	3.3	$878,174.55
Tyrus Thomas	$10,300,000	9.6	$1,072,916.67
Daniel Gibson	$9,105,431	7.7	$1,182,523.51
Hedo Turkoglu	$12,000,000	3.4	$3,529,411.76