Among its many excellent tools for objective analysis, basketball-reference.com provides a set of advanced statistics by draft pick over the last few drafts. This measures grant an understanding of the value of picks beyond traditional measures, like points or rebounds per game. Below is a list of the top ten picks in the 2009 and 2010 drafts. On the left hand side is the actual pick number, the player's name, and his win share, an advanced metric that estimates the number of wins the player has contributed to his team. After the backslash on the right hand side is the win share redraft, which lists the actual pick number, the player and his win share. Win shares reported here is cumulative so players drafted in 2009 had one more season to compile contributed wins than did players drafted in 2010.
Below shows that based on three seasons of play, only three of the actual lottery picks remained in the redraft top ten of win shares. That total is one more than the number of second round picks that entered the top ten in the redraft.
2009
1. Blake Griffin (19.0)/ 3. James Harden (21.0)
2. Hasheem Thabeet (2.6)/ 1. Blake Griffin (19.0)
3. James Harden (21.0)/ 18. Ty Lawson (17.3)
4. Tyreke Evans (9.7)/ 26. Taj Gibson (14.4)
5. Ricky Rubio (2.0)/ 10. Brandon Jennings (13.6)
6. Johnny Flynn (-1.0)/ 7. Stephen Curry (13.5)
7. Stephen Curry (13.5)/ 37. Dajuan Blair (13.4)
8. Jordan Hill (4.6)/ 43. Marcus Thornton (11.3)
9. DeMar Derozan (8.1)/ 17. Jrue Holliday (11.1)
10. Brandon Jennings (13.6)/ 21. Darren Collison (11.1)
In contrast to 2009 all but two of the 2010 redrafted players based on win shares were lottery picks. Landry Fields has obviously outperformed his actual second round pick and if the Wizards combine the output of Wall with Booker they have the second best win share after Monroe. (In fact, adding Kevin Seraphin, who finished 15th in the win share redraft would put the Wizards' first round 2010 picks at a combined at 13.8, or two tenths above Greg Monroe.)
2010
1. John Wall (5.7)/ 7. Greg Monroe (13.6)
2. Evan Turner (4.7)/ 39. Landry Fields (8.6)
3. Derrick Favors (5.9)/ 10. Paul George (8.4)
4. Wesley Johnson (1.9)/ 13. Ed Davis (7.8)
5. DeMarcus Cousins (5.3)/ 9. Gordon Hayward (6.1)
6. Ekpe Udoh (2.8)/ 3. Derrick Favors (5.9)
7. Greg Monroe (13.6)/ 1. John Wall (5.7)
8. Al-Farouq Aminu (2.0)/ 23. Trevor Booker (5.6)
9. Gordon Hayward (6.1)/ 5. DeMarcus Cousins (5.3)
10. Paul George (8.4)/ 2. Evan Turner (4.7)
Below shows that based on three seasons of play, only three of the actual lottery picks remained in the redraft top ten of win shares. That total is one more than the number of second round picks that entered the top ten in the redraft.
2009
1. Blake Griffin (19.0)/ 3. James Harden (21.0)
2. Hasheem Thabeet (2.6)/ 1. Blake Griffin (19.0)
3. James Harden (21.0)/ 18. Ty Lawson (17.3)
4. Tyreke Evans (9.7)/ 26. Taj Gibson (14.4)
5. Ricky Rubio (2.0)/ 10. Brandon Jennings (13.6)
6. Johnny Flynn (-1.0)/ 7. Stephen Curry (13.5)
7. Stephen Curry (13.5)/ 37. Dajuan Blair (13.4)
8. Jordan Hill (4.6)/ 43. Marcus Thornton (11.3)
9. DeMar Derozan (8.1)/ 17. Jrue Holliday (11.1)
10. Brandon Jennings (13.6)/ 21. Darren Collison (11.1)
In contrast to 2009 all but two of the 2010 redrafted players based on win shares were lottery picks. Landry Fields has obviously outperformed his actual second round pick and if the Wizards combine the output of Wall with Booker they have the second best win share after Monroe. (In fact, adding Kevin Seraphin, who finished 15th in the win share redraft would put the Wizards' first round 2010 picks at a combined at 13.8, or two tenths above Greg Monroe.)
2010
1. John Wall (5.7)/ 7. Greg Monroe (13.6)
2. Evan Turner (4.7)/ 39. Landry Fields (8.6)
3. Derrick Favors (5.9)/ 10. Paul George (8.4)
4. Wesley Johnson (1.9)/ 13. Ed Davis (7.8)
5. DeMarcus Cousins (5.3)/ 9. Gordon Hayward (6.1)
6. Ekpe Udoh (2.8)/ 3. Derrick Favors (5.9)
7. Greg Monroe (13.6)/ 1. John Wall (5.7)
8. Al-Farouq Aminu (2.0)/ 23. Trevor Booker (5.6)
9. Gordon Hayward (6.1)/ 5. DeMarcus Cousins (5.3)
10. Paul George (8.4)/ 2. Evan Turner (4.7)
just piling on thabeet
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